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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 16th, 2021–Apr 17th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Start (and finish) your day early and avoid exposure to sun-exposed avalanche terrain. Look for high elevation north facing objectives without cornices overhead, and plan your egress route carefully.

Check out the Forecaster's Blog for more on managing spring conditions.

Confidence

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure, with sunny skies and high freezing levels continues to dominate the weather pattern this weekend.

Friday night - Clear / light east wind / alpine low temperature near 8 / freezing level 3200 m

Saturday - Sunny / light southwest wind / alpine high temperature near 10 / freezing level 3300 m 

Sunday - Sunny in the morning with increasing cloud throughout the day / moderate northeast wind / alpine high temperature near 7 / freezing level 3300 m, falling to 2500 m in the afternoon

Monday - Mainly sunny / light northeast wind / alpine high temperature near 3 / freezing level 2500 m

Avalanche Summary

There have been several solar triggered wet loose avalanches reported in recent days, up to size 2.5, on solar aspects. There have also been a number of cornice failures reported over the past week.

Looking forward, wet loose avalanches and cornice failures are expected to continue with sun and warm temperatures. The likelihood and potential size of these increases when temperatures do not dip below freezing overnight, and avalanche activity will likely begin earlier in the day with each subsequent warm day.

Wind slabs may still be possible to trigger on high elevation north aspects.

Snowpack Summary

The snow surface may be a crust in some areas, but recent high overnight freezing levels may mean that the snow surface did not freeze in some places. Sunshine and warm temperatures are expected to quickly soften any crusts, resulting in a moist or wet snow surface.

On high elevation north aspects, soft snow or wind slabs may still be found. 

Cornices are large and looming along ridgelines. Their release is unpredictable, requiring a large berth if you're travelling above or below them. Sun and warm temperatures will increase the chances of cornice releases, especially when temperatures remain above zero overnight.

Terrain and Travel

  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
  • Avoid exposure to sunny slopes, especially in the afternoon.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Avoid areas with overhead hazard, especially solar aspects.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.