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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 11th, 2021–Dec 12th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

A cautious approach should be used until the snowpack has time to adjust to the new snow load. Take the time to investigate the layering before committing to your line.

Weather Forecast

Another 10-15cm of snow by Sunday morning as the Pacific 'Party' Front exits the region. Mainly cloudy skies and isolated flurries for Sunday. 25-50km/hr South West winds with an alpine high of -12. Another small pulse of snow should arrive on Tuesday with slightly warmer temps.

Check out the Mountain Weather Forecast for more details.

Snowpack Summary

30cm of low density snow in the past 24hrs, totaling 80cm of storm snow this week. Mod-strong South West winds creating fresh slabs in exposed terrain features. The Dec 1 crust is ~15cm thick at 1900m, buried by ~90cm and can be found up to 2300m. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well bonded and strong.

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle up to size 3 on Saturday as the new snow and strong winds increased the activity.

The field team observed Cheops N1 run size 2.0 to 2/3 fan, dusting the skin track in the Connaught Drainage.

Numerous reports of size 1-2 skier triggered storm slab avalanches in steep terrain and on convex rolls.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.