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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2015–Jan 16th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

Avalanche danger may be higher than forecast if snowfall mounts are greater than expected.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A fast moving cold front will bring precipitation to the interior of the province through tonight and Friday with the next system forecast to arrive Saturday night.  Overnight and Friday:  up to 5cm of snow with moderate to strong southwesterly winds and freezing levels around 1500m.  Saturday: clearing with light northwesterly winds becoming southwesterly and freezing levels at 1000m  Sunday: potentially heavy precipitation  with moderate westerly winds and freezing levels rising to 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche activity has been reported.

Snowpack Summary

New snow may overlie a rain crust which exists up to 1900 m. In upper elevation terrain, these modest accumulations overlie hard, stubborn wind slabs. Up to 75 cm below the surface you may find a hard, thick crust which was buried in mid-December. This crust has overlying facets and/or surface hoar. This layer seems variably reactive throughout the region. In areas where the overlying slab is thick and cohesive, large avalanches are possible at this interface. A crust/facet combo which formed in November seems to have gone dormant for the time being.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.