Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Nov 25 – 26, 2012Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

This bulletin is based on limited data. Local variations in conditions are likely to exist. Check out the Forecaster Blog for further details on interpreting early season bulletins.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–4
    Wind slab instabilities exist mostly on N and NE aspects may be touchy to rider triggers. Storm slab instabilities may still exist on all aspects and could weaken if solar intensity is high.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–5
    The early Nov. crust is buried down approximately 100 cm of snow near the base of the snowpack and is still reactive in areas with smooth ground cover, like grassy slopes. An avalanche initiated in the recent snow could step down to this layer.

Confidence

Poor - Due to limited field observations for the entire period

Weather Forecast

The sunnier drier ridge bringing cooler temperatures at night and mild afternoon temperatures with low winds from the North West  is forecasted to last until Wednesday. Increased cloud cover starting to build Tuesday or Wednesday, a sign that the next system is approaching the region. There is not much confidence in the timing of the arrival of the next system, but it looks like it should not effect the conditions covered by this bulletin. Watch for the weather update in the days to come. 

Avalanche Summary

There has been a couple second hand reports of large whumphing in the Harvey pass area and triggering a large size avalanche that could have run on the lower November crust.  If you and your friends have been out exploring and riding in the backcountry, and have some observations to share please send us an email to [email protected].

Snowpack Summary

The 15 to 30 cm of storm snow that was very reactive yesterday and created up to size 2 natural  avalanche in the Lizard range should be in process of settling. However, the afternoon mild temperatures with the sun shining could weaken temporarily the storm slab and the windslabs. The November crust is now below 100 cm in the Alpine and is apparently still active and producing clean shears when tested. This persistent weak layer seems to be found mostly found above 1800m on slopes with smooth ground cover. Below treeline snow levels may just be reaching threshold. If you are traveling in this elevation band, be mindful of obstacles like rocks and trees that could be hiding under a thin layer of snow.

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