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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2012–Feb 17th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Thursdays weak storm with light precipitation should clear out with Friday having a mix of sun and cloud. The sun will warm things up on southerly slopes with freezing level around 1300 m. Then next storm is expected to arrive overnight Friday with Saturday being a snow day. I expect around 10 cm. The wind veers to the NW Sunday with a mix of sun & cloudy, localized convective snow showers.

Avalanche Summary

Small loose snow or thin slabs are reported from steep terrain Tuesday & Wednesday. Only surface snow involved. Deep persistent slab avalanches remain possible in isolated terrain features; i.e. heavy triggers in shallow rocky snowpack areas on unsupported slopes. Check out the Avalanche Image Gallery under the Library tab for some photos of last weekends deep persistent slab avalanche cycle.

Snowpack Summary

Sunshine on Wednesday formed a crust on many southerly (SE, S, and around to the west) facing slopes. Shady slopes remain dry. Around 20 cm of recent snow which fell over the past few days is sitting on the widespread major surface hoar layer in many locations, sugary facets on shady N'ly and sun crusts on solar aspects. These interfaces need watching as they receive more snow load and/or the slab settles. Below that approximately 20cm of near-surface facets can be found on shady slopes while a sun crust can be found on southerly aspects. While the midpack is quite strong in most locations, basal facets remain a concern on shady alpine slopes that did not avalanche in the last cycle.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.