Togwotee Pass

The general avalanche hazard will be MODERATE in the early morning hours and increase to CONSIDERABLE by the afternoon. Strong southwest winds will create new soft slabs on a weak faceted snowpack. Drifting snow will rapidly load these slabs and increasing temperatures will create unstable conditions. As the hazard increases the potential for human triggered avalanches and natural avalanche activity to occur will rise. New slabs could reach depths of 18 inches in the afternoon and have potential to step down into older snow layers. Good terrain analysis skills are essential for safe travel in avalanche terrain today.

( Discussion is generated from the previous day's afternoon forecast. )A major winter storm will impact the region on Wednesday and Thursday. There is a lot of moisture in the system and it will be accompanied by strong winds and increasing temperatures. Winds will increase dramatically tonight and continue to be quite strong during this period. By Thursday Night two to three feet of new snow will accumulate in the mountains and 9 to 18 inches will fall at the lower elevations. Areas of blowing snow will be common at all elevations. Blizzard conditions are likely in the mountains.Snow is expected to increase in intensity overnight and will likely exceed rates of an inch per hour in the mountains on Wednesday afternoon. New snow accumulations of around three inches are expected in the mountains by morning with another nine inches of accumulation by evening. Temperatures at 10,500 feet will rise from near zero overnight into the teens by evening. Winds will be west-southwest at 25 to 40 with gusts to 60 miles per hour.Strong west-southwest winds will create new soft slabs on slick old snow surfaces. During the day blowing snow will rapidly load warmer denser snow onto colder lighter snow and create unstable conditions. Small natural avalanches are likely to occur in steep avalanche starting zones and will become larger as the day progresses and the avalanche activity becomes more widespread. New slab depths may exceed two feet during the afternoon and in some areas could step down and entrain older snow.The general avalanche hazard is expected to rapidly increase to CONSIDERSABLE and may be HIGH at the upper elevations by the end of the day. Expert terrain analysis skills and conservative decisions are essential for safe travel in avalanche terrain.