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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 5th, 2012–Feb 6th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Confidence

Fair - Due to variable snowpack conditions

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will remain imbedded over the region for the forecast period. Winds will be mostly light and easterly with alpine temperatures remaining well below freezing.

Avalanche Summary

Over the weekend widespread natural activity to size 3 was reported on sun-exposed aspects in the alpine. Although a decrease in avalanche activity is expected with forecast cooling, triggering of deeper weaknesses may still be a possibility with a large trigger.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow from the last few weeks seems to be fairly well settled. In the mid snowpack sits the mid-December surface hoar layer. Lately this layer has been less of a concern. At the base of the snowpack basal facets and depth hoar seem fairly widespread in the region. The big story for the weekend was warming at higher elevations due to an inversion and solar heating. Failing cornices, loose wet snow avalanches on sun-exposed slopes and isolated deep releases on basal facets at higher elevations were the big things to watch for. With forecast cooling for Monday expect a crust recovery on most slopes that were affected by the sun as well as decreased probability of avalanche activity. In Elk Valley North and the Crowsnest, the average snowpack depth at treeline is 150 cms. In Elk Valley S and the Flathead the snowpack depth is closer to 2 m. If you are traveling in the mountains it's a good time to take stock of layers that are developing on the current surface (crusts/surface hoar) that may become an issue when it finally snows.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.