Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

You can trigger a persistent slab avalanche on northerly and east-facing terrain where weak faceted snow near the ground is capped by denser slabs.   Although becoming more difficult to trigger, the consequences remain high as avalanches will be large with the potential to run long distances.  Avoid likely trigger points on the margins of the slab, rock outcroppings, and steep convex rolls.  Lower angled wind-sheltered terrain will provide safer riding options.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Dense slabs rest on top of weak faceted snow near the ground on northerly aspects.  As we push further away from the last loading event, triggering an avalanche has become more difficult, but not impossible.  Avoid areas where you're more likely to impact and collapse weak layers.  This will be on the margins of the slab, near rock outcrops and steep rollovers. Immediate feedback of unstable snow like audible collapses and shooting cracks most likely will not be present and give you a false sense of security.  You can avoid this problem by staying off of northerly aspects, or taking the time to dig a pit to assess if the slope you plan to play on harbors this strong over weak snowpack structure. Avalanches may break on or near the ground and will be large enough to injure or bury you and could be unsurvivable.  

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity has quieted down since the last storm New Years Day and the natural avalanche cycle we had.   Faceted snow and depth hoar near the ground continues to linger beneath dense slabs.  In long column tests, these weak layers are still reactive but are stubborn, taking hard force to get these layers to fail and propagate.  We're living in this world of lower likelihood but high consequences on steep northerly terrain. It may not be the first or second person on the slope to trigger an avalanche, but could just take finding that "sweet spot" to release a large avalanche that could take with it most of the season's snowpack. 

At upper elevations, winds have been in the 20 to 30 mph range over the last several days and will continue today. This has led to a stiffening of the surface that on some slopes is supportable while others have breakable windboard.  We were not finding these shallow slabs to be reactive in travels, but pay attention to a smooth rounded surface or obvious wind-drifted pillow, that will most likely be found on the leeward sides of ridgelines.  These shallow wind slabs would be small but could knock you off your feet and take you for a ride down the slope. 

The snowpack has been settling quickly and below treeline, slabs that formed during the holiday week storms are starting to decompose on north aspects and are becoming less communicative. We've left the persistent slab problem at below treeline elevations with the most likely slopes to produce an avalanche being northerly steep open wind exposed terrain.  Sun and warm temperatures have been forming crusts on solar aspects at these elevations. Near and above treeline, slabs are deeper and denser (See photos in media) capping depth hoar on the ground on north aspects.  Upper elevation west aspects have been stripped from the recent winds.  The best skiing and riding can be found on wind-sheltered slopes where "recycled" powder continues to provide good turns.

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