Seeley Lake

Overall, avalanche danger is LOW, but that doesn't mean NO danger. Loose wet avalanches are unlikely but still possible on solar aspects during the hottest part of the day. Isolated pockets of fresh wind loading at upper elevations are still possible, but lack of transportable snow and light winds will keep them small.

Coming off a recent January thaw, temperatures cooled back to mid to upper 20s °F for elevations about 6,000 feet yesterday. Various inversion layers hung across the forecast area. Expect seasonally cool temperatures today, although highs could briefly reach the mid-30s after noon. Winds will be out of the west with speeds in the light range (1 to 16 mph) with gusts up to 30 mph. 

Last night, a solid refreeze should keep any lingering old wind slabs locked in place, but triggering them is not impossible. If temperatures rise higher or for longer than forecasted, loose wet instabilities will become more of an issue. In your travels today, if you are seeing any red flags of instability such as rapid warming, cracks in the snow surface, strong over weak snow in your hand pits or pole pokes, or signs of avalanche activity, choose more simple terrain with slope angles less than 35 degrees. 

Snow depths have settled 2 to 4 inches since Thursday (1/13) across the forecast area. Freeze-thaw cycles have stability trending upward. Snow surfaces are mostly smooth and supportable, but stark variabilities exist across different aspects and elevations. In general, upper elevations are chalky and wind buffed, mid-elevations are soft and supportable, and lower elevations host breakable crusts and refrozen roller balls. It’s possible to find pleasing snow for your planks or machine. A keen eye for timing, aspect, and elevation will help. 

Ski and ride safe.