Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Storm totals will reach about 4 inches by midday.  The new snow will increase the likelihood and size of loose avalanches.  You can easily trigger loose avalanches on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass.  Avalanches are expected to be mostly small but some will be big enough to knock you down and take you for a nasty ride.  Use increased caution above terrain traps where the consequences of taking a ride are increased.  You can choose slopes less than 35 degrees to avoid triggering a loose avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Dry loose avalanches (sluffs) are the most problematic on the north half of the compass, especially in wind-sheltered terrain at near and below treeline elevations.  Up to 4 inches of new snow from Tuesday and Wednesday will increase the likelihood and size of loose avalanches.  Where the upper snowpack is weak and cohesionless, you can easily trigger small sluffs on slopes steeper than about 38 degrees. Ski cuts, moving across the fall-line while descending, or choosing lower-angled slopes are effective techniques to manage this problem. These avalanches will continue to accumulate mass in big terrain with sustained steep slope angles. Use caution above terrain traps where an avalanche can pile more deeply, or above trees and cliffs where you could be pushed into these more hazardous terrain features. 

    A great example of sluff management in terrain where sluffs could be more problematic because they get funneled down a gulley.  

Avalanche Discussion

The avalanche danger rating has been raised to MODERATE (Level 2 of 5) to account for the increased likelihood and size of Loose Dry avalanches.  The cold and dry month of January allowed the faceting process to take hold of the snowpack; snow surfaces on the north half of the compass are composed of 6 to 10 inches of cohesionless facets and an additional 2 to 4 inches of recent snowfall on top (You can see an observation from yesterday illustrating the weak snow, Lower Cement Creek).  Some natural avalanche activity is expected in drifted features or below very steep, "cliffy" areas.  Generally, avalanches will remain small in size but the potential size will increase where you find more storm snow.  Additionally,  long, steep slopes or terrain with a very weak snowpack will be places where avalanches can increase in mass as they run.  Take a look at these two recent examples from Redwell Basin and Schuylkill Ridge to get clear imagery of the potential size of loose avalanches or scroll through the media gallery below.  The media gallery below contains two videos about the current Loose Dry avalanche problem; one is a general overview of the weather conditions that created this problem and the second is a short video showing how easy it is to trigger on steep slopes with weak surface snow.  Testing a slope is a simple process, simply kick snow downhill like in the video below.  Straight forward techniques like this will help you gauge if a slope is steep enough to produce loose avalanches or how big a loose avalanche can grow on a certain piece of terrain.  You can always choose lower-angled slopes and surf pow on terrain that isn't steep enough to produce loose avalanches.

Winds are expected to remain relatively modest today, but you may be able to find shallow, soft slabs forming on leeward terrain features.  These slabs will likely behave more like a loose avalanche once triggered and entrain any soft snow available as it descends.  Stay alert in complex terrain to guard against the consequences of triggering a small, soft slab avalanche at upper elevations.

Regions covered