Avalanche forecast

Elkhorns

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Continuous snowfall and southerly winds have built 1-2' thick wind slabs on NW-N-E facing slopes. You are mostly to encounter these wind slabs near and below ridgelines. Avoid steep wind-loaded terrain and potential trigger points in the terrain like convex rollovers, rocky areas or cliff bands, and steep slopes below cornices. 

This forecast is sponsored by CB Construction. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Southerly winds have built wind slabs near and below ridgelines. Wind slabs, 1-2' thick, are likely to be found on slopes facing NW-N-E.  Human-triggered wind slab avalanches are likely at upper elevations in the Blues on steep slopes. The effects of recent wind-loading may present as smooth hard pillows lurking below ridgelines or sub-ridges mid-slope, as cornices hanging imposingly over steep slopes, or as stiff punchy windboard.  Look for and avoid steep slopes (>30 degrees) with large overhanging cornices, smooth textured wind pillows, and/or deposition zones with convex rollovers. You may find reactive wind slabs at lower elevations. Be cautious around leeward terrain features mid-slope like sub-ridges and gullies. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The Elkhorn Mountains have received 2+' of new snow since Monday. This significant load puts a lot of stress on the snowpack, which, in turn, creates a potential unstable storm slab problem. Near treeline and above human-triggered avalanches are possible. Avoid potential trigger points like convex rollovers, rocky areas or cliffbands, and steep areas beneath cornices.

    On Thursday forecaster Micheal Hatch found an upside down snowpack on the west shoulder of Gunsight Mountain. The top 8" was denser than the 10" below. This inverted snowpack was likely formed by the strong winds and the warmer temperatures overnight. That top 8" was very touchy and reactive in snowpack tests.  On a north aspect at 7800', he did find a layer of buried surface hoar down about 2 feet.  Slopes that may harbor buried surface hoar are W-N-E aspects near treeline and above. Surface hoar usually forms on slopes more protected from the wind and free of dense trees. 

    We have at least one report of a recent human-triggered avalanche off of Poster Ridge in the backcountry south of Anthony Lakes ski area.  Check out that report HERE. 

    (2/27/2024)

    Human-triggered wind slab on Poster Ridge outside the Anthony Lakes ski area boundary at 8400' on a East aspect. 

    Photo: Jeff Long

Avalanche Discussion

The storm that began Monday 2/26 has deposited 1-3' of new snow across our forecast zones. This storm has been marked by strong winds out of the SE, S and SW. These winds have moved a lot of snow and built wind slabs on NW through E-facing slopes. Many of these slabs formed on top of a melt-freeze crust. This crust would be an excellent sliding surface for the heavy slab that sits on top of it, all it needs is a trigger. That trigger could be you or the additional weight of the new snow. Avoid traveling on or below wind-loaded slopes.

On slopes not affected by the wind- storm slabs and dry loose avalanches lurk. Reports from sledders in the Southern Wallowas indicate heavy sluffing on N-E facing steep slopes. In the Northern Wallowas,  WAH ski guides report lots of snow moving below the treeline, with storm slabs and dry loose avalanches running on steep unsupported slopes. These observations illuminate a Red Flag, recent avalanches, and tell us we should avoid avalanche terrain until the snow has had time to settle.

Surface Hoar and Graupel. When this storm began there was well-developed surface hoar everywhere. While it appears to have been destroyed before this new snow could bury it intact, it is still a source of uncertainty. This storm has brought a lot of graupel with it. Graupel is small round BB's of snow, it can look like hail. As you can imagine, a layer of BB's isn't very stable. These layers of graupel are another source of uncertainty. When our uncertainty increases, our margins of safety should increase too. Make conservative terrain choices and dig down into the snow to look for buried surface hoar and layers of graupel which could be the weak layer for an avalanche.

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