Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

It's possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche today, especially near and above treeline where near surface facets and faceted crusts sit below a 1-3 foot hard slab. These avalanches could break high above you as the rider and propagate widely across a slope, making them very difficult to escape. Closer to the ground, depth hoar and faceted weak layers continue to linger in shallower snowpacks. Avoid the margins of the slab or rock outcroppings as these are areas where you're more likely to impact older weak layers. Rapid warming and intense sunshine will also add an increased risk of wet loose avalanches on solar aspects at all elevations today.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    In the upper meter of our snowpack, we continue to observe crust/facet combos on solar aspects and buried near surface facets on shadier or wind-loaded aspects. These layers are buried beneath 1-2 feet of hard slab near the surface, and this setup is still pretty widespread in our area at all elevations. Because of the hard slab and additional crusts near the surface on solar aspects, you're unlikely to get any feedback from these persistent weak layers as you tour around. However, they have continued to produce easy to moderate results in column tests and short results in long PSTs. Any persistent slab avalanche of this variety has the potential to break well above you and propagate widely across a slope. Do your duty and dig around for these suspect weak layers before entering any consequential avalanche terrain, and use conservative terrain and group management tactics if you do decide to step onto steeper slopes.

    Deeper down in the snowpack, depth hoar and the early January drought facet layer are still at play and continue to produce moderate to hard results in extended column tests where the snowpack is generally 1.5 m deep or less. These layers will be more difficult to impact and trigger today, but if you did find the right slab/weak layer combination they can produce a very large avalanche failing on or near the ground. Avalanche paths that ran already this winter are prime suspects for this particular setup. Avoid likely trigger points on the margins of the slab and near rock outcroppings as these will be the areas where you're more likely to impact these deeper buried weak layers. A probe pole can be a useful tool to identify snowpack depths on the slope you plan to play on.

    (3/14/2024)

    East Aspect near treeline. Near surface facets about 35-40cm deep failed on easy force in this spot.

    Photo: Charlie Harrison

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Temperatures will push into the 40s today at 10'000 feet with plenty of sunshine. Yesterday's warm weather brought a lot of clouds along with it, so many slopes that could have seen natural wet loose releases may not have. There's a good possibility that this will change today as the decomposing snow near the surface on solar aspects heats up in the direct sunlight. Pin wheels, roller balls, and slushy snow surfaces where you sink in to your boot cuffs are good indications that the snow has taken in some serious heat and destabilized, increasing your chances of initiating a wet loose avalanche. These wet snow avalanches will be small and confined to the upper 6-12 inches of snowpack, but they are also capable of stepping down to deeper buried weak layers, especially those in the upper meter of snowpack, leading to a larger and more destructive avalanche.

    (3/20/2024)

    Natural roller balls are an excellent indicator that wet loose activity is on the rise. Here is a good example from a wooded area we were in the other day.

    Photo: Andy Bond

Avalanche Discussion

Over the last several days, we've seen some warm temperatures but also plenty of clouds and a light snow dusting from the thunderstorms that passed through earlier in the week. Snow is settling quickly and solar aspects are definitely developing some new crusts, so if you get out for a tour today it's best to treat it like any spring day and get your turns in on the early side before things really start to heat up. This will be the warmest day of the whole week and there won't be many clouds to guard against the sunlight, so use the sun as a reference and chase shady areas all around the compass for the best conditions. There is still some really great recycled powder to be found in sheltered North facing terrain. Otherwise, expect to find firm or breakable crusts in the mix on other aspects and slush developing over the course of the day.

We were expecting to see a widespread cycle of wet loose avalanches to occur yesterday with the warming trend, but there were quite a few clouds in the sky throughout the day and that likely kept many slopes from releasing naturally. Today we will see even higher tempertures and minimal cloud coverage, leading to a potentially higher frequency of wet loose avalanches. Be on the lookout for slopes that are heating up - slushy or sticky surfaces that easily set off roller balls are your best indicator - as this is when you're most likely to trigger this kind of avalanche. Steep, rocky areas are extremely suspect for these avalanches since the rocks nearby absorb a lot of radiation and spread it to the surrounding snowpack. These wet loose avalanches generally start over a small area and fan outward as they move downhill and pick up speed. They're unlikely to bury you but they could easily knock you off of your feet or carry you through terrain hazards such as rocks or trees, so please be aware of this particular avalanche problem today as our intense sunshine rapidly heats up snow surfaces over the course of the day.

The primary avalanche concern today remains the persistent slab problem in the upper meter of snowpack. We are still finding a variety of weak layers (near surface facets and crust/facet combos) all over the place, and these are the PWLs that you're most likely to impact today. The hard slabs sitting on top of these weak layers are anywhere from 6 inches to over 2 feet thick in our wind and sun-driven snowpack, so do yourself a favor and look for this strong-over-weak setup anywhere that you plan to ride today. These weak layers have had some time to adjust to the weight from our March snowstorms so you're unlikely to get much feedback from them as you travel around, making it all the more important to dig down in the snow and look for the problem before you commit to any steeper avalanche terrain. The first collapse that you get today is likely to trigger a destructive avalanche, so think about the consequences if this were to happen before you pick a piece of terrain. Only expose one skier at a time and choose open slopes with easy runouts over those with terrain traps.

Deeper down in the snowpack, the weak layers that have plagued us throughout the season continue to be present in the shallower snowpack  (<1.5m prior to the last storm). These layers have been failing with moderate to hard force in extended column tests and continue to produce short results in long PSTs. This latest storm definitely wasn't enough to stress these weak layers, but if you found the right "sweet spot" where the snowpack is shallower you could release a large avalanche that would take most of the season's snowpack with it. Below treeline areas are where this sort of shallow snowpack is the most common, but the springy weather as of late has caused much of the slab on top to facet and weaken as well, so there isn't as much of a risk of these avalanches occuring at these lower elevations. Avalanche paths that already slid this year are going to be the most likely suspects today and going forward. Persistent slab avalanches runnning in the upper meter of snowpack are also likely triggers for this deeper, more destructive kind of avalanche.

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