Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

There are dangerous avalanche conditions in the mountains. You are likely to trigger avalanches that break on deeply buried weak layers. These slides could break widely across terrain features, and you could trigger them from low-angle slopes below or next to steep terrain. The best safe travel practice for this problem is to avoid traveling on or under terrain over 30 degrees. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–2.5

    Weak, faceted snow over the Early February Crust created a tricky and dangerous persistent slab problem. An avalanche incident near Darland Mountain on Friday likely failed on this deeply buried persistent weak layer (preliminary statement in discussion). After the recent storms, a thicker slab exists over this weak layer, so avalanches will likely be much larger. A smaller avalanche could also step down to this layer. You can trigger a persistent slab avalanche from low-angle terrain below or adjacent to steep slopes, and they may propagate widely across terrain. You may or may not observe signs of instability, like collapsing, before triggering an avalanche, and it may not be the first person on the slope to trigger it. Avoid traveling on or under slopes over 30 degrees. Give steep open slopes wide safety margins. These are not conditions where you can manage the hazard on a small feature scale, as large slopes can fracture at once, running through lower-angle benches and small features. Stay off of and out from underneath steep slopes at elevations above approximately 4500ft, where 1-3ft of new snow has accumulated since 2/24. Heavy rain likely created a thick, slippery crust at lower elevations and will limit avalanche potential.

    (2/22/2024)

    A skier triggered avalanche (D2) on facets above the early February crust in the neighboring East Central zone. The crown was 100' wide x 4"-1.5' deep and it was triggered from below on a 30-degree terrain. It ran to either side of the low-angle slope. Longs Pass, W, 6,200ft

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    With continued light snowfall and cold temperatures, there is plenty of low-density snow to drift around. Moderate winds formed stiff wind slabs near ridgelines and exposed terrain. These smaller avalanches can step down to deeper weak layers, quickly becoming very large and potentially unsurvivable. Textured surfaces, cornice formations, and drifts around rocks and trees can all point to likely wind-loaded slopes. With these overlapping avalanche problems, it will be best to simply avoid steep terrain, especially in wind-affected areas. 

    (2/27/2024)

    This slab failed as a ski patroller traversed lower on the slope. It reportedly failed on the 2/14 interface.

    Photo: Crystal Mountain Pro Patrol

Avalanche Discussion

Preliminary Report: An avalanche accident occurred on Friday, March 1, near Darland Mt in the Ahtanum Meadows area. Two snowmobilers were involved in the slide. One rider was fully buried and killed. The avalanche occurred around 6600ft in a generally east-facing bowl. NWAC staff will visit the accident site on Saturday. Our deepest condolences to the family, friends, and community.

This pattern of persistent slab problems can be incredibly challenging for backcountry decision-making. It takes extremely conservative terrain management and patience. This winter's lower-than-average snowfall and warmer-than-average temperatures contribute to a shallow snowpack prone to developing these tricky weak layers. The issue is especially apparent in the eastern Cascades, which, on a typical year, is already a bit shallower and weaker than areas west of the crest. So, if you're venturing into these eastern zones this winter, be prepared to take a step back in your typical terrain selection and understanding of the snowpack. It's easy to be surprised in these conditions, so with the increased complexity of the snowpack, choose low-angle terrain to enjoy the fresh snow. 

If the sun comes out to stay for a while in the afternoon, you may see some small, wet loose avalanches, rollerballs, and pinwheels. 

In addition to the avalanche near Darland Mountain, there have been many other reports of avalanches and signs of instability throughout the week. Large, widely propagating natural avalanches occurred in West South on Friday. And on Thursday, Crystal Ski Patrol triggered a widely propagating avalanche during control work. Before this storm, I traveled near the northern end of East South and found a weak snowpack structure with faceted snow grains over the Early February Crust (EFC). There are also potential layers of surface hoar and faceted grains from the 14th, 18th, and 24th. Widely propagating avalanches could fail on any of these layers. Approach the mountains cautiously and enjoy some low-angle powder until these weak layers gain strength. But be patient, as it could be a while before we see improved snow stability. 

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