Northern New Mexico

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist today, but low danger does not mean no danger.  It's currently unlikely but not impossible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche on steeper slopes where you find a stiffer, more cohesive slab on top of depth hoar and facets below.  Watch for obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks on the surface or firm harder slabs at upper elevations.  Our snowpack remains quite shallow all around the compass, so continue to be cautious of ground hazards like rocks and downed trees in your travels today.

Spring-like weather begins to dissipate today and it will continue to be difficult but not impossible to trigger an avalanche in the predominantly shallow snowpack of the Northern Sangres.  Today's cloudier and slight cooler weather presents another decent opportunity to go for a tour or a hike, but the travel conditions remain quite challenging except for on higher-traffic trails.  If you're looking for high-quality turns, they do still exist in heavily sheltered North-facing terrain, and you'll want to bring some wide boards to limit the effects of getting bogged down in the sugary facets near the surface.  Firmer but more supportable conditions exist at the upper elevations but the issue is of course getting there.  You'll almost certainly have to deal with rock, ice, or dirt patches and downed trees both on and off trails, in addition to highly unsupportable weak snow, breakable crusts, or wind-hammered surfaces like satstruggi on the way there.  Keep expectations within reason if you're getting out there, or take advantage of other outdoor sports with better current conditions. 

The past week's record-shattering February temperatures have had big impacts in our mountains.  East and West aspects that were holding a snowpack before last week's storm have built out 5- 15cm melt-freeze crusts on the surface.  On southerly aspects, that storm feels like a distant memory as these slopes have melted out completely.   Northerly aspects below treeline have been able to avoid the more drastic warming effects, but we've been finding a more settled and stiffened slab forming out of the low-density snow that fell.  We haven't found any of these slabs to be very reactive, but seeing how much wind has blown in the last few days it's possible that you could come across a slab that's able to carry more energy and propagate more widely across a slope.  It's very easy to impact the incredibly weak snow below these lower-elevation slabs - you'll feel just how easy it is to sink down into the depth hoar in uncompacted spots if you're breaking trail - so keep an eye out for changing signs of instability like audible collapses or shooting cracks as these are signs that you've come across an area that's behaving more sinister.  Still, these slabs are unlikely to be reactive across large distances today and we are more concerned with how they will respond to successive snowstorms over the course of next week.

 At upper elevations, strong winds over the last week have stripped and scoured windward terrain and drifted and pressed the snow into firmer hard slabs on leeward terrain.  This pattern is focused on northerly and some east-facing slopes near and above treeline.  Moderate, gusty winds today will continue to press these snow surfaces into harder slabs, which are pretty easy to identify: many of the slopes that look filled in enough to ride in the higher alpine contain a hard slab sitting on top of weak, faceted snow.  You can also identify a hard slab underfoot as the snow will start to feel much more supportable and you'll be unable to punch your ski pole tips very far down.  Triggering one of these hard slabs will be difficult and would take hitting a "sweet spot" near the margins where the slab is shallower and you're able to impact the weak snow below, but any persistent slab avalanche of this sort would be dangerous and could break well above you.  Keep your avalanche radar on today despite the overall low danger if you're stepping into bigger terrain, and always practive safe travel habits.  Consider the consequences inherent to any slope and only expose one person at a time to larger sections of terrain above 35 degrees.

The overall picture of our snowpack remains largely unchanged: it is predominantly shallow and we aren't seeing any signs of healing.  Even though we had 4 days at or above freezing with temperatures hitting 50 F for two days at 9300', we weren't finding much water percolating down deep into the snowpack.  This is probably because there wasn't much moisture available in the snowpack, which mainly consisted of facets and depth hoar prior to the January 30th storm that only dropped 0.7-0.8" SWE on top.  Weak faceted snow and depth hoar continue to pervade large portions of the snowpack on all slopes that are holding snow, and these persistent weak layers will become a concern next week if the weather forecast verifies and we see some significant snowfall in the mountains again.  A pattern of incremental loading is on the table and on northerly terrain we could reach a point where we build out our slabs near the surface to a point where the scales suddenly tip.  Crust-infested slopes would also become concerning because they won't be able to handle a lot of weight and extremely weak faceted snow lurks right below the crusts.  If it pans out, the forecasted storm patterns could bring rapidly changing avalanche conditions, but also some much needed moisture for our region as we look ahead towards fire season and spring.

It's been a challenging winter for us here in Northern New Mexico so far, but we do have some upcoming storms to look forward to.  Enjoy what we've got right now, even though it isn't all that much, and stay tuned for updates on the incoming moisture.