Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering an avalanche 1-3 feet deep remains likely at upper elevations. Avoid areas where the wind has stiffened the snowpack or new snow is building fresh drifts today. Recent storm snow has added weight to weaker snow in the snowpack. Similar conditions over the past few weeks have produced human-triggered and natural avalanches. Continual snowpack assessment & sticking to gentler terrain sheltered from the wind will decrease your exposure to hazards. Avoid steep areas if cracking occurs.

A winter weather advisory is in place until 11 AM Wednesday.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Over 40 inches of snow has fallen in the past five days. Intense wind drifting has formed slabs of varying thickness on wind-loaded terrain features at all elevations. Still, you will most likely encounter this problem on middle and upper-elevation slopes. These drifts will range around 1-3 feet deep. Not surprisingly, yesterday, observers reported that the wind easily transported the new snow. When lower-density snow is blown into wind slabs and drifts, the difference in texture may be subtle. Drifted areas may still feel like powder but may have just enough added cohesion that you could trigger a wind slab avalanche. Yesterday's drifts may be masked by new snowfall today, but remain sensitive to your weight. A recent large (likely natural) avalanche was observed in the Claw at Teton Pass two days ago. 

    (3/3/2024)

    A recent large avalanche likely occurred 72 hours prior in the Claw. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Each time it has snowed in this range, large avalanches on weak snow have been noted, however there are very variable in where they occur throughout the range. The primary culprit is a weak layer of snow buried in January that now sits below a firm, cohesive slab, around 3-5+ feet deep dependent on your elevation. Areas that have held shallower snow all season hold higher odds of encountering this problem, however active weather should bring this problem to mind along with the problem above. Lower elevations have recently filled in, have a generally shallower snowpack, and are worth bearing in mind.  Terrain where this problem is most hazardous includes very steep, hanging snowfields above cliffs and rocky or notably shallow slopes. Keep in mind that a large wind slab release or cornice fall has the potential to trigger one of these very large avalanches.

    (3/4/2024)

    A recent large natural avalanche that occurred on Mount Hunt.

Avalanche Discussion

When negotiating with a big, snowy slope, it's important to recognize whether the evidence you see matches what you believe about your environment. Though we are a few days out from our peak loading event of the season, I saw greater wind transport yesterday in the Tetons than in the days prior. So, what is the likelihood that you poke the dragon and trigger an avalanche if you are in avalanche terrain today? The answer is...it’s possible, and likely on wind-loaded upper elevation terrain. As with any day in the mountains, it all depends; there are plenty of places where you might trigger a slide and places where you might not. Avalanche hazard is difficult to communicate in this way. It is the likelihood of an avalanche impacting something of value—for our purposes, that thing is you. Logically as the likelihood of triggering an avalanche decreases, the danger also decreases. Here's where it gets tricky; while the likelihood of triggering a slide may decrease, the consequences of getting caught remain the same. Any avalanche forecast is an inherently imperfect product. The grit we sand an entire mountain range down to (a rating and a few problems) is quite coarse. It rests on the shoulders of the user to continually utilize finer-grit sandpaper to apply to their decision-making and slope-specific terrain selection for the day. The best way to manage uncertainty is to build wide safety buffers for your travel decisions. Be aware of the terrain you are traveling in, and picture the consequences of being caught, in even a small wind slab, in that terrain.

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