Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

An AVALANCHE WARNING is in effect.  Another foot of snow and transportable wind speeds are overloading the snowpack again and very dangerous avalanche conditions are expected.  On slopes that didn't recently avalanche, slabs will be very easy to trigger at all elevations.  Some large and destructive avalanches are expected to release naturally today. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    The recent storm formed slabs 2 to 4 feet thick, overloading the widespread facets and faceted crusts that formed during our long December drought and weak layers at the ground.  These avalanches can propagate hundreds of feet wide and have been remotely triggered from thousands of feet away. This is a very challenging problem to manage; give yourself a wide margin for error when traveling near or below slopes steeper than 30 degrees.  Large or very large avalanches are expected to run naturally today. Some have the potential to run far into their runout zones.  

    A widely propagating persistent slab avalanche on the east face of Gothic Peak ran naturally around 1/15.  

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    About a foot of new snow and gusty westerly winds are forming fresh drifts on leeward terrain features.  Wind slabs could be dangerous by themselves, or have the potential to step down and trigger a much more destructive avalanche.   Stay off of and away from the runouts of leeward slopes.  

Avalanche Discussion

The final pulse of snowfall this morning will bring current storm totals over a foot.  Snowfall totals over our January weak layer are about 50" at CBMR and 95" at Irwin.  The current snowfall and windloading will bring the snowpack back to, and potentially past, its breaking point in terrain that didn't recently avalanche.  The avalanche danger is straddling the high end of Considerable (Level 3) and low end of High (Level 4), with some uncertainty of how much natural activity will result today.  Given the already extensive cycle over the weekend and a relatively smaller loading event in comparison, I'm not expecting natural activity to be as widespread as what we've already documented.  However, some slopes will be at their natural breaking point today, especially windloaded terrain across our forecast area, or sheltered slopes in the shallow zone.  With an extra foot of snow in the past 24 hours, we're expecting conditions to be very sensitive to human triggers in parts of the Southeast Mountains, where this storm is both overproducing and a relatively bigger punch on the snowpack compared to total snowfall this month and this season.  An Avalanche Warning is in effect for the Southeast Mountains.   A forecaster in Cement Creek yesterday turned away from fieldwork objectives at the narrows due to constant booming collapses under a 3-foot slab.  The Northwest Mountains got hit by almost twice the water weight last week, so the snowpack is expected to hold up a bit better to the current loading.  We're showing High danger there in the alpine to cover some uncertainty; if paths start releasing again on windloaded slopes, they'll be up to D3 in size.  

Patience is the name of the game right now.  Our shallow and weak snowpack has been put through the ringer in the past week, and this is another hit.   With relatively quieter weather in the coming week, the danger will be on a decreasing trend after today.  

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