Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A skier or rider could possibly trigger an avalanche on numerous persistent slab weak layers or in wind loaded areas above and near treeline.  Watch for cracking and collapsing, as these are obvious signs of avalanche hazard.  Obstacles buried below the surface remain a danger on skiable and rideable slopes and on approach and egress.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Faceted snow at the bottom of the snowpack remains the primary hazard on slopes of nearly all elevations and aspects.  This is a challenging problem to negotiate as it presents a low probability but high consequence scenario.  The exception is mid and low-elevation south-facing slopes, where snow coverage is minimal and solar radiation has reduced the early season snowpack.  Steeper slopes at high elevations present the most significant probability of being triggered.  Skiers and riders entering the backcountry should understand this hard-to-predict risk.  Ski one at a time, and stop in the safest zones possible.  Additionally, wind transported snow from Friday and Saturday may have loaded upper surface weak layers, and could result in small reactive soft slab avalanches.  Retreat from cracking slopes, especially those with terrain traps below traverses.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    On Friday, north winds reached speeds high enough to cause atmopheric suspensioin , with intermittent periods of wind in a more moderate range. Moderate winds continued yesterday with direction shifting again from the NW in the afternoon.  Some snow has likely been sublimated into the atmosphere, but some may have accumulated on the leeward side of gullies and ridges.  A rime event helped minimize some of this transportation.  Backcountry travelers should identify and avoid wind accumulated snow and the resulting berms, drifts and mounds.  Watch for cracking and be aware of hollow sounding snow--both obvious signs of instability.  

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's sunny weather has melted some of the rime and likely created a solar crust on most all aspects except north slopes.  If seeking soft snow be espcially wary of the avalanche hazards, wind slab and persistent slab.  Wind slab avalanches remain possible on ridgelines and in cross-loaded gullies and slopes at elevations above and near treeline.  More consequentially, is the issue that wind-deposited snow has increased the load on weak layers found near the top of the snowpack.  This makes these slopes more sensitive to a skier or rider triggering an avalanche.  It's probable that additional wind distributed accumulation is still not creating enough stress to trigger these weak layers, but on east, through some west facing aspects, where upper layers of the snowpack contain near-surface facets, small avalanches are possible.  These small avalanches could carry a skier or rider over cliffs or into trees.  Be observant for cracking and retreat if slopes are showing signs of instability.

In other isolated areas, such as starting zones, Friday's wind event may have further loaded and increased the weight on the basal facets found within the snowpack.  Today,  natural and human triggered avalanches in these areas are unlikely, but if an avalanche were triggered the consequences could result in a full burial.  Again, this is a low-probability but high-consequence scenario.  These additionally loaded slopes will be more likely to fail, given a future storm event. 

Conditions are currently variable across the peaks. and changing rapidly.  Yesterday, moderate winds continued to load some areas with snow.  On Friday, a wind event transported snow across the Peaks and sublimated some snow into the atmosphere. Today, crusts could soften in the afternoon.  Due to the wide variety of conditions be sure to assess new aspects carefully, as conditions could change rapidly in close proximity areas.

On Thursday, the Peaks received 2-7 inches of fresh snow.  Much of this snow has now been distributed by winds.  Snow depths in Humphrey's Cirque ranged from just 55 cm on subtle ridgelines to over 160 cm in snow-drifted areas; similar depths were observed in Big Bowl.  On Thursday, an extended column test propagated on depth hoar on a southern-facing slope at approximately 11,500' at 10 cm from the bottom, demonstrating that there is at least a moderate level of propagation likelihood.  Yesterday, an extended column test in Big Bowl resulted in propagation  approximately 30 cm beneath the snowpack.  Overall structure remains poor, strength is moderate and propogation propensity is varying between low and moderate.

Thus far, no avalanches have been observed or reported this season.  This is due to the thin snowpack and the fact that slopes have yet to receive a significant snowstorm.   Egress and regress remain challenging, but they are starting to become more realistic and achievable with less effort.  The typical array of obstacles: boulders, rocks, stumps, and logs, are the primary hazard for those looking to earn some backcountry turns.  Be prepared to walk over some wind-affected terrain. and negotiate continued early season conditions.

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