Avalanche forecast

Chugach State Park

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Strong winds will make human-triggered avalanches likely and increase the chance of natural avalanche activity through the day. These will be 1 to 2' deep on average, and may produce larger avalanches failing on weak layers buried deeper in the snowpack. Approach steep terrain with caution today, and be aware of increasing avalanche danger as the winds ramp up.

FRIDAY AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: We will likely see 3 to 5" new snow by Friday afternoon, with easterly winds slowly tapering through the day. Avalanche danger will remain elevated, with similar avalanche concerns as today.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches:  There were multiple avalanches involving wet snow reported earlier in the week, including a large avalanche on Harp Mtn. on Sunday and another large wet avalanche reported on Rusty Point on Monday.  

    Avalanche danger will be on the rise as easterly winds increase through the day, averaging 30 to 45 mph by this afternoon. This will move any soft snow into reactive wind slabs, which will make it easy to trigger an avalanche around 1 to 2' deep. This fresh layer of wind-drifted snow will also stress deeper weak layers (see Problem 2 for more on that).

    The most likely places to find unstable snow will be in steep terrain below ridgelines, convex rolls, and in steep gullies. You may notice warning signs like shooting cracks, but you won't always see that before a slope avalanches. If you notice snow blowing off ridgetops, expect to find sensitive conditions where that snow is being deposited. Look for better surface conditions and a more stable snowpack in wind-sheltered terrain with soft snow on the surface.

     

    (4/16/2026)

    Snow forecast for today from 4AM to 4AM Friday courtesy of the National Weather Service Anchorage Office

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The new and windblown snow expected today will add stress to a snowpack with several known weak layers buried anywhere from 1 to 3' deep or deeper. This poor structure produced a large avalanche in the South Fork on Sunday, and large collapses were observed on O'Malley and Rusty Point on Monday and Tuesday. Although it has been a long time since we've seen widespread activity on these buried weak layers, these are all clear signs that the snowpack may produce large avalanches.

    This setup will be most concerning where it is getting actively loaded by today's strong winds. The good news is that the habitat for this problem largely overlaps with Problem 1 above. You can manage the problem by avoiding steep terrain, especially where there is snow blowing onto the slope.

    (4/14/2026)

    Poor structure on the west face of O'Malley.

    Photo: Tony

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