Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger will increase through the day as snowfall accumulates and strong winds transport new snow. Surface instabilities will be heightened in all avalanche terrain where more than 6 inches of snow has fallen and especially in wind drifted locations. Watch for red flags like shooting cracks on test slopes. A conservative mindset and simple terrain selection will reduce your exposure to storm slabs and wind slabs.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Avalanche danger will rise through the day with elevated snowfall rates and increased wind. There is some uncertainty in the amount of precipitation expected. However, if totals verify or over 6 inches of new snow fall, storm slabs will be of primary concern and all avalanche terrain should be evaluated carefully. If on the lower end or less than 6 inches, the problem will resemble a wind slab problem with a more specific distribution. Either way, strong winds will create locally deeper slabs in leeward terrain features. 

    Slabs may fail within the new snow or directly above the old melt freeze crust. Small amounts of graupel were observed near the base of yesterday’s snow, which could act as a weak layer. Additional graupel could fall today, especially with stronger convective activity in the atmosphere and a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Other density changes could serve as weak interfaces.

    As you travel today, monitor snow totals. Use small test slopes to gauge how the problem is developing. Sudden collapses and shooting cracks underfoot or machine indicate unsafe conditions. These signs should steer you to simpler terrain. Leeward terrain below ridgelines, around rock outcroppings, and in gully features will hold the most reactive and consequential slabs. Today’s strong winds may affect more sheltered areas and create slabs lower on slopes and in less typical locations. Look for wind-textured or stiffened snow surfaces and watch for where blowing snow is accumulating.

    (2/22/2026)

    Skier triggered wind slab on small test slope on a northwest aspect at 7,400 feet 

    Photo: Chris Carr

Avalanche Discussion

Winter has returned! This is the first storm event since early March, a welcome change to the prolonged period of abnormally warm, dry weather and a much-needed refresh to existing snow surfaces. Recent snow survey data from the Eddy Mountains highlight the below-average depths from persistently high snow levels and periods of unseasonably warm weather this season. The full observation can be read here. On Mount Shasta, depths measure about 50 inches at the Old Ski Bowl (7,600 feet) to just several inches at Sand Flat (6,800 feet).

If you are venturing into the backcountry today, it will be important to maintain your situational awareness. This weather system looks like it will brief, but it could be intense, and the avalanche hazard may rise within a short time. Evaluate slopes for signs of instability before committing to steep terrain. Firm surfaces under the new snow will provide a solid bed surface and still pose a slide for life risk. As snow totals increase through the day, hazards from shallowly buried obstacles will also become more of a problem as many rocks, trees and other earthly objects have melted out in the March heat.

For those interested in climbing or planning a trip, check the Climbing Advisory page for more information. Instabilities associated with this storm will likely persist into the weekend in the form of wind slabs and wet loose avalanches. Feel free to give us a call at 530-926-9614 with any questions you may have. 

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