Avalanche forecast

Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Hot temperatures and strong sunshine are creating dangerous avalanche conditions. Large to very large natural and human-triggered wet avalanches are likely. The timing of wet avalanches is hard to predict. Avoid slopes where the snowpack is mushy, and don't linger beneath large, avalanche paths. On colder, shadier slopes, triggering a large slab avalanche is possible in wind-affected terrain.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Two varieties of wet snow avalanches are likely on steep, wind-sheltered slopes:

    1. Wet Slab: These large avalanches are unpredictable. They release as buried weak layers become wet. We anticipate these avalanches to break 1-3 feet thick, creating a dangerous, likely unsurvivable avalanche. They can break widely and without warning. The only way to reduce your risk is to avoid traveling on or under steep slopes. 
    2. Wet Loose:  These avalanches are most likely during the heat of the day on slopes that face the sun. They often initiate near the bases of trees, rocks, and cliffs. Although slow-moving, these avalanches are surprisingly powerful and difficult to escape. They may also trigger larger wet slab avalanches (example) as they move downhill.

    Additional Discussion - Cornices: Avoid large, overhanging cornices. The heat will cause these to sag and break. Scary in their own right, they also serve as excellent triggers for the two wet avalanche concerns described above. 

    (3/19/2026) Wet Loose avalanche in Prairie Ck. SE @ 9,500'.

    Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2

    You could trigger a 1-3 ft thick persistent slab avalanche on buried weak layers (sugary facets, surface hoar, and crust + facet combinations). This problem is worst on wind-loaded middle and upper elevation slopes facing NW-N-NE-E. Dry or wet, these are the aspects where you're most likely to trigger a large slab avalanche.

    Look for smooth snow pillows, dunes, textured snow surfaces, and cornices as indicators of wind-stiffened snow. You may not see obvious signs of instability, such as snowpack cracking and collapsing, before triggering a slide. 

    (3/17/2026) A pair of large natural slab avalanches that failed on weak sugary facets buried 2 feet below the surface. N aspect @ 8300'. These probably occurred over the March 14/15 weekend.

    Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Today will be slightly cooler than the past few days, but it’s still warm enough to do weird things to the snowpack. Multiple hot days followed by nights without solid freezes are allowing meltwater to move deeper into the snowpack. Confidence in how things will behave remains low.

Our main concern, and greatest source of uncertainty, is how the persistent weak layers buried in February will react as meltwater reaches them. These layers are most pronounced on cold, shaded mid and upper elevation slopes. Although observed wet slab activity has been limited so far, yesterday's warm temperatures and last night's weak refreeze may push the snowpack past its tipping point. Wet slab avalanches are notoriously difficult to forecast. Until we see a strong overnight freeze, expect sketchy conditions. 

You can reduce your risk by traveling early and getting back to the car early. Surface crusts are expected to become mushy once exposed to the sun. The only surefire way to reduce your risk is to limit your exposure to avalanche terrain.  

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