Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A storm bringing snow and wind could push our weak snowpack over the edge near the Cascade Crest and at upper elevations. You could trigger avalanches where the wind blows snow into stiff drifts below ridgelines. Choose wind-sheltered terrain and steer clear of steep slopes with textured drifts or areas where you observe blowing snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    With new snow and wind, we could begin to see avalanche activity increase on buried weak layers. This isn't a powerful storm, so we have a fair amount of uncertainty if reactivity of the persistent slab will increase. That said, both small, fresh wind slabs and deeper persistent slabs are in the cards in wind-loaded terrain. Upper elevations and areas near the Cascade Crest will be the places where avalanches are easiest to trigger.  Avoid steep slopes below corniced ridgelines and areas with stiff, wind-textured surfaces. Current reports indicate most avalanches have been small, but with limited access to the zone, we have considerable uncertainty. And even small avalanches can carry high consequences in the wrong terrain. So it's important to step into terrain slowly, choosing moderate, sheltered, small slopes. Persistent weak layers can be tough to assess as you travel, so the best mitigation tool you have is terrain avoidance. 

    (3/1/2026)

    Snow machine triggered persistent slab avalanche in the neighboring East South zone on 2/28. [HS- AMu-R2-D2-O @ NE, 6700']

    Photo: Joe Dellaporta

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Temperatures are cooling, but the lower elevations will likely see mostly rain. So wet loose avalanches on northern aspects with previously soft dry snow should also be on your radar. Recently formed surface crusts and widespread wind-stiffened snow will likely limit wet avalanche activity on southern and more exposed terrain. Rollerballs are the first sign of wet avalanches, and while most will be smaller point releases on steep slopes, there is a chance of them triggering a persistent slab. You can avoid wet avalanches by moving to low-angle slopes as surfaces become wet. 

    (12/24/2025)

    Natural roller balls falling off cliffs indicate a warming and weakening snowpack.

    Photo: Payton Schiff

Avalanche Discussion

Areas in the eastern edge of the zone won't pick up as much precipitation, so avalanches may be smaller and less likely in areas like the Wenatchee Mountains. We aren't sure whether this modest storm will make it easier to trigger avalanches. Currently, information on and observed avalanche activity related to buried weak layers remains spotty and hard to pin down.  But in other zones, it didn't take much to tip the scales on this weak snowpack. So to avoid getting surprised, it's best to adopt a conservative mindset. Hopefully, after Wednesday's storm, we'll have more confidence in how the snowpack is adjusting. 

You can generally find 8-12 inches of snow over our persistent weak layers - the 2/13 buried surface hoar and facets around the 2/7 crust. This depth and the prominence of these layers may vary throughout our large zone, especially on sun-exposed slopes or at lower elevations. However, we have decent confidence that this poor snowpack setup exists throughout the zone, despite only a handful of data points. 

On Saturday, backcountry travelers observed numerous whumpfing collapses on Big Jim Mountain outside of Leavenworth. Over in the Wenatchees, the Mission Ridge Pro Patrol noted a small avalanche triggered on a cutbank that failed on buried surface hoar, and that the weak layers are alive and well in study plots. On Friday, NWAC forecasters were in the Teanaway and found that the buried surface hoar was starting to heal, but the 2/7 facets were not. They also observed long shooting cracks in wind-drifted snow.

We don't have many direct avalanche observations from our zone. However, in neighboring zones, we have gotten plenty of feedback. East North continues to have very large avalanches fail. Stevens Pass had an active weekend. And a snowmobiler in the East South triggered a persistent slab on Saturday that broke 2 feet deep. Given the known weak snowpack structure in our zone, these observations underscore the concerns you should consider when making your travel plans. Take the time to discuss your acceptable level of risk with your partners.

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