Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Firm surface snow that exists this morning will quickly melt into wet snow on sunny slopes today, and avalanches of wet loose snow will be possible. Once the snow feels wet, mushy, or unsupportable, or if you start sinking into boot-top-deep wet snow, consider moving away from avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Monitor the snow by stepping off your equipment, feeling it with your hands or poles, noticing when you start breaking through the refreeze, and looking for clues such as recent roller balls or pinwheels. Being aware of these changes will help you stay ahead of the quickly changing snow conditions. Once the snow starts feeling wet, mushy, or unsupportable, it's time to move away from avalanche terrain. 

    The weather continues to feel like late spring or even summer, with warm nights and hot days. Clear night skies allowed some refreezing due to heat escaping from the snowpack (radiational cooling), but these refreezes are weaker, more superficial, and more variable than those driven by cold temperatures. Expect loose, unsupportable wet snow to form quickly on sunny slopes as the refreeze crust melts in the hot, sunny weather. The surface wet snow will deepen as the day warms, and wet loose avalanches will become possible, especially on sunny slopes.

    Most wet loose avalanches should remain small since repeated melt-freeze cycles and prior rain have transformed the snowpack into late-spring- or even summer-like snow and established effective water drainage channels through the snowpack. Still, an isolated, larger wet loose avalanche might be possible on a long, steep slope, where a small wet loose avalanche could entrain more snow as it slides downhill. Keep in mind that small avalanches can have increased consequences in exposed terrain.

    (3/21/2026)

    Ski cuts triggered roller balls and small sluffs of wet snow on SE aspects at 9500 ft at 10:15 am on Incline Lake Peak. 

    Photo: Sierra Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Most cornices have already collapsed or melted. If you find an overhanging cornice lingering along a ridge, consider it suspect for collapse during this hot weather and give it a wide berth.

Snowmelt has become noticeable across all aspects and elevations during this heat wave.  Many southerly aspects now have more bare ground than snow cover. Large areas of bare ground and open, flowing creeks with few to no snow bridges are making approaches to terrain difficult in many places, especially from lower-elevation trailheads.

Shaded northerly aspects still offer better snow coverage, but some obstacles like rocks, stumps, logs, etc., are starting to melt out on these as well. Some of the lower-angle N aspects have started to soften during the day as the sun angles increase, but most still have firmer, bumpier snow surfaces. Long sliding falls remain a hazard in areas that hold frozen snow surfaces.

Regions covered