Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Avalanches large enough to bury a person remain a worrisome possibility. This problem is at its worst at upper elevations and on shaded middle elevation slopes (W-N-E) where weak snow near the ground exists. You may not see warning signs like cracking and collapsing before triggering an avalanche. Small pockets of wind-blown snow from today's storm will be easy to trigger in exposed mid to upper elevation terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

     A strong over weak snowpack structure — the recipe for avalanches — exists in many places. Beneath a 1.5-2.5 foot thick slab, we have sugary, weak, unconsolidated facets. On sunny slopes, you'll find a mix of crusts and facets. This pairing is capable of producing large avalanches that can bury a person. You'll find this snowpack structure on all upper elevation slopes and shaded middle elevation slopes (W-N-E). Slides can be triggered from a distance away from the slope that avalanches and may break wider than you'd expect.

    We continue to get quality public observations of collapses over much of our forecast area. While cracking and collapsing are obvious signs of instability to watch out for while moving through the mountains, don't justify entering a slope due to their absence. Warning signs are helpful, but persistent slabs often don't produce any before it is much too late. You can dramatically reduce your risk of tangling with a large avalanche by avoiding slopes where this weak snow exists at the base of the snowpack. 

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION: Today's storm will build isolated wind slabs in exposed terrain. While small, these slabs may be touchy due to the weak snow (facets with or without a crust / surface hoar) they fell on top of. Look out for drifts, dunes, and rippled surfaces as warning signs if you travel into this terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

In areas where more snow is falling today, moderate winds may build isolated wind slabs in exposed mid to upper elevation terrain. These pockets will be easy to trigger due to the variety of weak surfaces they will build on top of. But don't let this new snow distract you from our headlining persistent slab avalanche problem. Read on.

Riding in avalanche terrain with a persistent slab problem is unsettlingly similar to playing a game of Russian roulette. There can be ten tracks on a slope, and the slope can still avalanche on the eleventh skier/rider. Just because several members of your party safely made it down the slope does not guarantee the same safe passage for you.

A problem like this tests our patience and understanding of ourselves. Looking down an untouched couloir filled with soft snow from a ridgeline this week, I felt myself drawn to the slope. My mind searched for reasons why skiing something I wouldn't have a few days ago was justifiable...I couldn't find any. We've been in the stagnant slump of managing this same hazard for most of our season, and it isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Framing our mindsets and having discussions about what terrain we are going to avoid before even getting our boots on can give us guardrails in these tempting situations. 

Many of us are conditioned to associate MODERATE on the danger scale with a less-than-impressive avalanche problem. Like medium salsas, not all moderate danger ratings are created equal. We've all taken a big scoop of  "medium" salsa that turned out to have a bit more spice than we bargained for. Today's moderate rating is not some bland pico de gallo. While the bottle may read "Moderate", this is not your average yellow day — it's a spicy moderate. Make sure to not bite off more than you can chew. 

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