Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

An incoming storm will bring periods of moderate snowfall and gradually warming temperatures. Step back to more conservative terrain if you see signs of instability like shooting cracks, rollerballs, or fresh avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The incoming storm isn’t arriving cleanly—expect variable snowfall rates, fluctuating snow levels, and shifting winds. Avalanche danger could rise quickly in the afternoon or evening, especially during heavier snowfall, but shallow, reactive slabs may exist from the start. Conditions will vary widely across the zone, with more precipitation forecast near the western foothills and significantly less along the Cascade Crest.

    You are more likely to trigger a slab on steep slopes that are loading up with wind-drifted snow. But with weak, faceted snow or crusts at the current snow surface, be ready to see shallow slabs in all terrain, wind-loaded or not. Track conditions through the day. As snowfall, wind, and poor visibility increase, step back from bigger, steeper, and more complex terrain.

    (12/16/2024)

    You could find the slab in wind-sheltered terrain on Wednesday. Weak snow surfaces mean you might see some reactivity even with modest amounts of new snow.

    Photo: Gregg Oliveri

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Wet loose avalanches should be on your radar at low and middle elevations as rising snow levels spit rain onto a bit of new snow. While all should be small, they can still pose a real hazard in rugged, marginally snow-covered terrain or where open creeks exist in the runout. Avoid travel on or directly beneath steep slopes where you see fresh rollerballs, pinwheels, or small wet avalanches.

    Example photo: Rollerballs initiating from trees and other steep, rocky areas. These are indicators that more wet avalanche activity could follow. 

Avalanche Discussion

Low danger has persisted across much of the Cascades over the past few days. The few inches of new snow from the weekend haven’t been enough to produce notable slab formation or wet avalanche activity. At mid elevations, the snowpack beneath recent snow is a mix of crusts with rounded grains and soft melt forms—a product of repeated swings between cold, snowy weather and warmer, rainy periods this winter. An NWAC Forecaster found basically the same along Hwy 2 today.

The most important factor heading into the next storm is the current snow surface. Light-density surface snow has faceted, with weak snow lingering even on sunnier aspects where you’d typically expect melt-freeze crusts. A few days of faceting alone isn’t a classic setup for a persistent weak layer, but it is enough to increase sensitivity. Expect fresh slabs to be more reactive than usual, even with relatively small amounts of new snow.

Regions covered