Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Sun, warm temperatures, and a lack of freeze will maintain heightened avalanche danger. Large chunks of snow could fall off rocks, cliffs, and cornices, and particularly in areas with shallower snowpacks, there's a chance you could trigger a deadly wet avalanche on sunny slopes. Don't linger on steep slopes with unsupportive wet snow or under snow-covered rock features.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    For what will feel like such a simple, sunny day, conditions are quite complex. There is variability in where surface crusts exist and how thick they are. There is still moisture and liquid water hanging around within the snowpack. There is also a lack of observations to pinpoint any of this in the zone. It is unlikely you'll trigger a wet slab avalanche, but if you do, it could be deadly. Slabs could slide on slickened crusts within the snowpack that formed earlier in the season.

    You'll be much more likely to see globs of snow falling from cliff bands and small wet loose avalanches releasing in steep southerly terrain, particularly at middle and upper elevations. Lower elevations should stay cool enough to hold off significant warming and weakening. If you sink into wet, unsupportive snow or notice the frequency of roller balls and avalanches increasing throughout the day, move to more shaded, lower angle terrain. Although one of these slides is unlikely to bury you, pay attention to what's above nonetheless. Don't linger under steep slopes, cornices, or rock slabs where snow could come down from.

    Unfortunately, wet slab avalanches are nearly impossible to predict. This makes Thursday an excellent day not only to practice your terrain management skills but also to have good conversations with your group about risk tolerance. What does the terrain around you look like? Are there exposed rocks in the middle of the slope that could be potential trigger points? Are there terrain traps and other hazards below you that could turn a slide from bad to worse? Do you feel comfortable entering onto a big, steep slope where there is an unlikely chance of triggering an avalanche large enough to bury and kill you?

    (1/13/2026)

    A large slab avalanche at mid to upper elevations near Hart Pass. This likely occurred on the 12th, and possibly due to a falling cornice.WS-NC-D2.5-O

    Photo: NCH

Avalanche Discussion

There will be a slight uptick in wind on Wednesday night, which will help cool down the snowpack a bit. But overall, middle and upper elevation terrain is unlikely to see a good overnight refreeze once again. Thursday will be "cooler" than Wednesday, but that's not saying much given that temperatures spiked into the upper 50's on Wednesday.

We have no new snowpack information for East South or the nearby East Central zone, which often exhibits similar conditions. Although high pressure in January is not particularly odd, we don't often see temperatures get quite this warm this time of year. All of these leave us with big questions regarding instability. We suspect that because East South had a shallower snowpack to begin with, the likelihood of triggering a wet slab avalanche is a touch higher, but there's a chance a wet slab cycle already occurred on Wednesday. We simply don't know. Is this enough information for you to gamble your life on? That's up to you to decide.

Prior to the warm-up, this past week brought 1-2 inches of snow water equivalent to the zone. This equated to 1-2 ft of recent snow over a crust that was buried on January 3rd. During this period, most avalanche activity was confined to heavily wind loaded terrain. Below those surface instabilities, backcountry travelers generally found a strong, well-bonded snowpack to the January 3rd crust. While isolated, but still noteworthy, a layer of buried surface hoar was found around Ahtanum Meadows (observation here) and was likely the culprit of a nearby avalanche on Dome Peak near the South Fork of the Tieton (observation here). We suspect these instabilities are largely a thing of the past.

Travel at lower elevations was just starting to improve slightly before warming reversed its course. In addition to the travel challenges, even small avalanches in these locations can take you for a rough, nasty ride. Plan for tricky travel and give yourself extra time to navigate lower elevations.

Please consider submitting an observation online or on the AvyApp if you get out. Your information helps NWAC Forecasters write more accurate forecasts.

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