Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Avalanches will become easier to trigger as the day progresses, particularly in wind-loaded terrain. Don’t overlook obvious signs that conditions are becoming dangerous, such as rapid wind loading and heavy snowfall. Tuesday will be a good day to simplify your terrain, especially as it starts snowing and blowing.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Increasing wind speeds and intensifying precipitation with slight warming will be the perfect recipe for reactive wind slabs across upper and exposed middle elevations in the zone. Precipitation will ramp up as the day progresses, so expect the slab depths to increase through the day. In typical, East South fashion expect more dangerous conditions where more snow falls closer to the Cascade Crest. 

    Tuesday will be a good day to start stepping back with terrain selection. Strong west W/SW winds will easily transport recent accumulations and make it feel quite stormy in the wind zone. Don’t overthink these obvious clues of wind loading. Blowing snow and wind-textured surfaces should help you identify which slopes are loading up and which are dangerous. Steer around steep leeward slopes that often collect wind-deposited snow, such as the downwind sides of ridges & cornices, at the base of cliffs, or on mid-slope convexities in the open areas. Cracks shooting out from your feet or machine are obvious signs that you found an unstable wind slab.

    (12/13/2024)

    Blowing snow and firm pillow-like drifts are great clues to anticipate wind load slopes. 

    Photo: ONP Rangers

Avalanche Discussion

Tuesday is shaping up to be a stormy day as strong wind speeds drift available soft snow, and precipitation rates intensify. With this combination, expect the avalanche danger to rise as the day progresses, particularly as you climb or ride into wind-exposed terrain. There is some modest warming that will accompany this system, so it may be possible to trigger avalanches in more sheltered, open terrain in the western parts of the zone by the afternoon hours.

Based on observations in nearby zones, you’ll likely find 3-10 inches of recent accumulation over a melt freeze crust that was buried on January 2nd. Most observations from the East Central and West South have reported a strong mid and lower snowpack below the recently buried crust. Above, observers have reported mixed results with snowpack  tests and some surface instabilities within wind-drifted snow. Moving forward, avalanche activity is likely to occur at or above this crust that you’ll find under the recent accumulations. 

The snowpack remains thin for early January. Many avalanche paths are littered with rocks, creeks, and early-season terrain depressions. In choosing terrain to ride, consider the consequence of a slide- if one happens, where will it take you? Look for slopes with a clean run-out free of bone-breaking trees, creeks, and rocks. 

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