Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New snow, wind, and a variety of old surfaces will make it easy to trigger avalanches on Sunday. Stay off of steep, wind-loaded slopes where avalanches could be big enough to bury you. Plumes of blowing snow will point out the most dangerous areas.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Avalanches will be the biggest and easiest to trigger above treeline. Plumes of blowing snow will point out the most dangerous slopes. Steer around obviously wind-loaded terrain immediately below ridgelines and cliffs. You may be able to trigger wind slab avalanches in exposed areas below treeline. Watch for drifts forming on cross-loaded features and gullies.

    Cold temperatures created weak surfaces on many slopes prior to the storm, though you should expect some variability.  Carefully assess the bond at the new/old interface and how it changes as you travel. Use small test slopes and quick, informal tests to see how the snow slides. The new snow may be very light and low-density. If accumulations are significant enough, you may be able to trigger loose avalanches in wind-sheltered terrain.

    (1/9/2023)

    Small test slopes like this can indicate unstable conditions and the presence of reactive wind slabs. 

    Photo: Irene Henninger

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche Fatality: Colchuck Pk, East Central Zone: Read the preliminary report here.

A storm early in the week brought 8-10" of snow to favored areas of the zone, including Mission Ridge and the Icicle drainage. All the snow from the past week sits over the Valentine's crust, which is often weak snow between a thin sandwich of crusts. Observations around the zone indicate this crust exists up to 6500-7000ft. While we don't anticipate enough new load for avalanches to involve this layer, it's not out of the question. You can quickly dig into the top 2 feet of the snowpack to assess this older layer.

If you get out into the mountains, let us know what you see by submitting a public observation. 

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