Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Uncertainty is high with the winter storm. If snow accumulation meets or exceeds the 24-hour totals predicted by this afternoon (15-24"), natural avalanches will be possible and human-triggered avalanches will be likely.

Triggering small to large wind slab avalanches is possible near and above treeline. On north, northeast, and northwest slopes, these avalanches may then step down, triggering deep persistent slab avalanches that are very large and probably unsurvivable. Avoid wind-loaded, rounded, pillowed, rippled, and corniced slopes steeper than 30°. 

For less avalanche hazard, seek slopes with no recent wind loading below treeline.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong southwest winds have created wind slabs on leeward slopes and terrain features. Winds are forecasted to continue for the next several days and will continue to redistribute the snow. Anticipate wind slabs avalanches to be likely for the foreseeable future with continued winds and additional snowfall over the next few days. Avoid wind-loaded, rounded, pillowed, rippled or corniced slopes, as these may have new sensitive wind slabs.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    New wind slabs may be large enough to re-energize the dormant persistent weak layer of basal facets. Human-triggered wind slab avalanches may have enough force to step down, creating propagating failures in the weak layer of basal facets. If so, the avalanches may become very large. The basal facets and depth hoar have been documented on northerly and northeasterly slopes between 11,000' and 11,800.  Over the last few weeks, this weak layer has become less reactive as it has been buried deeper with strong slabs above it, providing additional support. We have not had any recent persistent slab avalanches; however, this week's snowfall could reenergize this problem.

    The best way to manage the risk from persistent slab avalanches is to make conservative terrain choices and avoid slopes with this suspected problem.

Avalanche Discussion

A high amount of uncertainty exists due to the winter storm. At 6 am, Arizona Snowbowl is reporting 4" (10 cm) of new snow overnight at 10,500 feet, with an additional 6-10" expected today. At 7am, the SNOTEL site in Snowslide Canyon is reporting an addition of 1.1" inches of water accumulation since the storm started, adding 3" (7 cm) of snow. We believe both measurements have been highly influenced by the strong (50+ mph) winds and that new snow depth will be highly variable.

SupportIf every person that reads our forecast page donated just $10/year, then KPAC would be fully funded and could grow, providing daily forecast updates all season. https://kachinapeaks.org/Support

Regions covered