Avalanche forecast

Salt Lake

Issued Jan 6, 2025valid to Jan 7, 2025Utah Avalanche Center

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Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. These are dangerous avalanche conditions.

You can trigger large avalanches 2-4'+ thick failing on an old persistent weak layer of faceted snow. You will be able to trigger them from a distance or from below. The most likely place to trigger one of these avalanches is on (or beneath) steep west to north to east facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations.

Lingering pockets of wind slab or storm slab from Saturday may be found on all aspects with a MODERATE danger.

Avalanche problems

Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Likely
Size
3
On west to north to easterly facing aspects, we have a generally 2-5 foot thick slab overlying weak faceted snow. This faceted snow formed early season and was essentially waiting for the Christmas/holiday storm to build a cohesive slab. The canary avalanche for the storm cycle was on Christmas Eve and since then, there have been over 80 reported avalanches failing on this persistent weak layer (PWL) of weak, faceted grains. I'm sure the real number is in the hundreds. These large and dangerous avalanches have released nearly day since then and it'll be a bit of a waiting game as the snowpack slowly adjusts over time. It might be awhile.

See heat map of avalanche activity below since Christmas Eve. The southerly aspects are outliers (not the PWL) and the westerly aspects don't represent the significant activity at the ski areas.

Bonus Material: Forecaster Greg Gagne's reading of poet James Tate. Meditation on a Persistent Weak Layer

Recent Activity

Yesterday, there were reports of continued collapsing and cracking from backcountry travelers. We continue to get observations of remotely triggered avalanches failing on the buried facets (photo below). Ski area operations reported mixed results with control work but positive results include an 6' deep crown in upper LCC. Check out all observations and avalanches HERE.

Photos (Pressman) of a remotely triggered avalanche yesterday by another party on a northeast facing slope at 9,300'. This large avalanche just north of the Ant Knolls on the Wasatch Back (upper Snake Creek) was triggered from below and pulled out 2-3 feet deep and 150 feet wide, ripping out to near the ground.

Special Announcement

Join the UAC and Backcountry Ready at Skimo CO TONIGHT at 7PM for an After the Avalanche Wilderness First Aid discussion.

Snow and Weather

Skies are overcast with this next storm overhead. This isn't exactly true - the storm is splitting apart and "split' in my book is a four letter word. Still, we'll aim to pick up perhaps a trace to two inches by nightfall. Temperatures are in the the upper teens to low 20s. Winds are generally light, although anemometers at 11,000' are showing wind speeds of 25-30mph from the west-northwest.

Skiing and riding conditions were pretty darn good after Saturday's storm that put down 1-2 feet of snow in the Cottonwoods and 5-10" along the PC ridgeline but a rime event yesterday afternoon may be something to contend with today. Rime, of course, is the deposition of super-cooled water droplets via a conveyor belt on the clouds. This deposition, a rime crust, can be wafer-thin or, well, brutally thick. You'll have to let me know what you find.

For today, we'll have occasional snowfall, light westerly winds and temps in the upper teens to mid-20s. Winds shift to the northeast tonight and become moderate to strong. A fast moving system is slated for Wednesday night that'll bring cooler temps and strong winds but little to no accumulation. Another storm is possible for the weekend.

photo from yesterday - Gagne and Johnston

Additional Info

The accident reports for the Porter Fork and Davenport Hill Accident have been completed. You can read them HERE.

At the Utah Avalanche Center, we strive to learn from every avalanche incident and share insights to help others avoid similar accidents. We have all experienced close calls and understand how easily mistakes can happen. Our goal with these reports is to provide valuable learning opportunities.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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