DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. You will likely trigger an unsurvivable avalanche 2-4 feet deep and a couple hundred feet wide in steep west to north to southeast facing terrain today. You will be able to trigger these from a distance or below. We have had two avalanche fatalities since Saturday. We don't want any more tragedy.
*If you are exiting a ski area boundary, you are stepping into very dangerous terrain.
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You'll find lingering and newly developing soft and hard slabs of wind blown snow on many aspects and elevations today and over the next few days with sustained winds. Triggering one of these may then subsequently step down to the ground.
These are dangerous and tricky avalanche conditions. We clearly have a strong slab 2-4 feet thick overlying a persistent weak layer (PWL) of weak sugary faceted grains and there's no mystery here: avalanches, cracking and collapsing are nearly omnipresent. Don't try to outsmart this set-up or thread the needle: choose low angle terrain (less than 30°) with no adjacent or overhead hazard or terrain where the PWL does not exist.
Remember that as these overlying slabs gain strength, they can propagate wider and pull back onto lower angle connected slopes.
***Uncertainty Threshold: Most of these avalanches have occurred above 8000', but not all. Poor structure has also been noted on other aspects but the most likely places to trigger these are west-north-easterly at mid and upper elevations.
Remotely triggered avalanche on Little Water Peak photo Mark Oliver
We are deeply saddened to confirm two avalanche fatalities. The first involved a 38 year old man in Main Porter Fork of Mill Creek Canyon who went missing on Saturday. The second avalanche fatality occurred yesterday that involved a 54 year old man off Davenport Hill into Silver Fork of BCC. Both individuals were traveling alone in the backcountry. Our condolences go out to to the family and friends of the victims.
Many thanks to those who responded to these accidents: search and rescue teams from AirMed, LifeFlight, Utah Dept Public Safety, Utah Department of Transportation, Salt Lake County Search and Rescue, Wasatch Backcountry Rescue, Alta Ski Area, and members of the Utah Avalanche Center.
Main Porter Preliminary Accident Report (1st photo -SL County SAR) Accident avalanche obscured by recent snow/wind. Avalanches in photo are from explosives to protect rescuers.
Davenport Hill Preliminary Accident Report (2nd photo - Wasatch Backcountry Rescue) The victim was buried 20 feet deep.
By my count, there were another ten avalanches triggered in the backcountry yesterday, including the fatality on north facing Davenport Hill into Silver Fork.
The list from yesterday includes Butler Basin, Meadow Chutes, Lavina Creek, Ant Knolls, Little Water, Summit Park, Sheep Shit Ridge, Lackawaxen, Murdock Peak, and Davenport. These were 2-4 feet deep and 200 feet wide on generally north through east facing aspects at 9500' or so. Nearly all were triggered from a distance. This pushes our totals to just over 50 reported avalanches since Friday now failing on our old weak persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow from early season.
A couple notes: some of these avalanches were pulling into lower angle terrain (~30° degrees or less in steepness). Some of these are ripping out in seemingly benign terrain (ie-terrain in Mill D North of BCC).
Reminder: Please call Alta Central (801-742-2033) or your closest ski patrol dispatch (INFO) if you happen to witness a new avalanche and are sure there is no one involved. This allows rescue teams to stand down and not stick their necks out if they're not needed. Thank you -
For detailed observations and reports, check out all avalanche observations HERE.
Skies are becoming overcast ahead of this next storm. Temperatures are on an upward trend and are currently in the upper single digits to low teens. The winds, too, have been kick-started and are blowing 15-25mph out of the west. We'll start to see some light snowfall by the afternoon with storm totals of maybe 6-12" or so. Unfortunately, I see this storm as coming in upside down, with snow becoming more dense over time. At least the accompanying winds will be moderate to strong from the west. Another - colder - storm arrives late weekend with perhaps another one on its heels early week.
Rough Storm Totals from Thursday-Monday are below
LCC: 40-50"/6" snow water equivalent
BCC: 30-45"/3.5-5.5" SWE
PC: 35-40"/3.5" SWE
Coverage has dramatically improved with snow depths now 40-60 inches on the ground in the upper Cottonwoods and 30-40 inches along the Park City ridgeline. Even some southerly aspects are somewhat rideable now, though they picked up a slight zipper crust on the steeper terrain yesterday.
Researchers Ian McCammon and Kelly McNeil looked into safety habits that markedly increase our margins of safety. Please take a moment to look over these and recalibrate your safety habits: Six Tips That Could Save Your Life (Recent updates to Safety Messaging)
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
