Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Say goodbye turkey and hello to our next winter storm. Accumulating snow begins to ramp up later this afternoon and into Saturday. The avalanche danger will also be ramping up during this same time. Dangerous avalanche conditions will first develop on upper-elevation wind-loaded slopes, before extending overnight to some lower-elevation slopes that have a weak foundation of old snow, primarily located on northerly to easterly aspects. On Friday, pay close attention to how much new snow accumulates and if you are observing early warning signs such as shooting cracks or a collapsing snowpack. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    On northerly to easterly-facing slopes, the base of the snowpack is exceptionally weak. As 8+ inches of new snow accumulates on Friday or Saturday, expect increasingly reactive and larger slab avalanches. Early warning signs include shooting cracks or a collapsing snowpack.  Natural avalanches will first be possible on Friday afternoon in upper elevation wind-loaded terrain, before further extending to wind-sheltered areas by the time 10 inches of new snow accumulates. This avalanche problem will be non-existent where new snow accumulates on previously dry ground or southerly-facing slopes with thick crusts.

    Shooting cracks like this are an early warning sign for this slab avalanche problem. 

Avalanche Discussion

Don't overthink the avalanche conditions this weekend. These conditions will be typical of many other early-season storms in our area. On slopes that have a foundation of old weak snow, we can expect both human-triggered and natural avalanches this weekend. While in areas that had dry ground before this storm or have a base of thick crusts, a persistent slab avalanche problem will not develop. In those areas, we'll instead need to keep our eye out for a wind slab avalanche problem once the wind direction sets up from the north on Saturday. 

The timing of the rising avalanche danger will mainly coincide with the increasing precipitation rates and accumulating snow. Right now that looks to occur either late this afternoon or overnight. Provided the snow forecast verifies, we'll see another round of natural avalanches tonight while the persistent slab avalanche problem will further remain reactive to human triggers through the weekend, with an avalanche danger trend that will be slow to decrease. 

We don’t have a lot of snow on the ground, and with that, there are fewer places to ski and ride. Unfortunately, the slopes with the most snow will likely be the same slopes harboring the primary avalanche problem. If you are in those areas, you need to use the terrain characteristics to your advantage, such as managing slope angles and overhead hazards. You may be surprised or get lucky and find some southerly-facing slopes holding thick enough crusts to keep you off the ground while riding the terrain. Getting caught in even a small avalanche at this time of year will have higher consequences if it carries you into the many exposed rocks or other shallowly buried hazards. 

Regions covered