Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Human triggered avalanches will be possible today and trending upwards as temperatures reach above freezing around noon. Expect the most dangerous avalanche conditions on North through Southeast aspects near and above treeline--in starting zones, on the leeward side of ridgelines, and rock outcroppings.

Travelers should assess carefully before heading into avalanche terrain, and be especially wary of new softer wind slabs that may be more reactive than wind slabs formed by Thursday night’s strong and scouring winds.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Light to moderate westerly winds throughout yesterday with the combination of 3-6 inches of new snow on the ground have fostered prime conditions for wind slab formation that will make for dangerous avalanche conditions on some slopes today. Winds shifted from Northwest to Southwest throughout Friday and into the evening, creating the potential for wind slab formation on North through Southeast aspects. Snow in protected gullies and terrain features remained soft and available for transport yesterday, with wind speeds also staying in the sweet spot for sensitive wind slab formation.  

    Be extra cautious as temperatures rise above freezing and weaken firm wind slabs that have been previously unreactive.

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday, the wind further distributed snow received from Thursday's storm, leaving 1-8" on many sheltered slopes below treeline, near treeline, and on some upper elevation aspects.  Wind slabs and pillows have been noted in various above and near treeline isolated locations.  These pockets of wind slab are distributed on a variety of aspects and positions due to winds that varied from Northwest to Southwest.  Watch for these wind slabs on cornices, pillowed areas, and the leeward side of downslope ridges, especially on North through Southeast aspects. 

Little reactivity was noted on these wind slabs yesterday, but they may release with the weight of a single skier or rider, particularly as temperatures increase today.  Of particular note were East and Southeast facing slabs with layers of graupel near the old snow/new snow interface.  Particular caution should be used on these features and attention given to avoidance.  At upper elevations, skiers and riders will get a reprieve from the wind, but it will not last long--high wind conditions are expected to return as early as tomorrow. 

The non-wind affected snowpack near and below treeline is showing good stability.  For more detail check out the snow pits below. Southerly aspects will be affected by the warm temperatures and direct sun today.  This will result in melt-freeze conditions forming in the new snow, but it will likely not warm enough for wet-loose conditions to be a possible problem.  

Finally, above treeline rime-ice, windboard and scoured slopes are present.  Anyone venturing into this elevational gradient should be prepared for firm conditions and may want to consider the use of crampons and/or ice axes.

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