Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Warming temperatures and rain will start making the snow surface wet and weak -  especially in the western parts of the zone. As you travel, keep an eye out for the surface crust breaking down and look for signs of instability such as rollerballs or recent wet loose avalanches. Be ready to dial it back and move to lower-angle slopes once you start seeing these warning signs.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Freezing levels are on the rise which will start making snow surfaces wet and weak on all aspects and elevations across the compass rose. Due to this, you may see wet avalanches of all types as the day progresses. 

    Sunday will be a good day to pay close attention to your surroundings and the current weather conditions. As you travel look for signs of warming, such as rollerballs or pinwheels releasing. These signs are often precursors to  larger wet loose avalanches. Rain falling will accelerate this process and will help the snowpack lose cohesion. So if you notice wet avalanches or see these signs, be ready to dial it back and avoid near-by steep slopes. 

    Cornices will start sagging and get weaker as temperatures rise. Give these overhanging pockets of snow some space on Sunday. 

    Example of wet loose avalanche activity from a rain event in 2019.

Avalanche Discussion

Significant changes are knocking on the doorstep. Sunday will bring rising freezing levels and some rain during the later half of the day. You’ll likely encounter more wet and dangerous conditions as rain starts falling during the late afternoon & evening hours. Expect wetter and higher avalanche danger the closer you are to the cascade crest. Areas closer to White and Chinook Pass will be receiving significantly more precipitation, so consider reading the West South forecast if you plan on traveling on the western edges of the zone. 

Currently our snowpack can be described as a ‘mixed bag’ of conditions. Observers in the White Pass area on Saturday observed variable travel and with about an inch of snow sitting on a melt-freeze crust at upper elevations. This small amount of snow was easily drifted into shallow, isolated slabs. Lower elevations have seen a lot in the past days from rain, warm temperatures, and wet loose avalanche cycles- which is resulting in a widespread crust at these elevations. At the highest of elevations, you may still encounter a drier and more layered snowpack with wind slabs lurking on leeward slopes. Observers to the north in the East Central are still reporting reactive wind slabs on leeward features above 6500 ft. You may find similar conditions in the East South.

As conditions warm and rain starts falling, be in tune with the changing conditions, especially in areas that still hold a dry snowpack. 

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