Avalanche forecast

Eastside Region

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions will develop by mid-day and avalanches will become increasingly likely as the snow surface warms. Warming will increase the potential for slab avalanches failing on buried weak layers and hard crusts, and for large cornice features to break loose. Monitor surface melt closely, be aware of overhead hazards, and be ready to retreat as surface snow becomes wet and unconsolidated.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Temperatures last night were very warm. While increasing winds overnight may have led to a superficial refreeze in some areas, you can expect to see surface snow melt quickly as the sun comes out this morning and we reach above-average temperatures again today. Wet loose avalanches will be increasingly likely by mid-morning and significant natural activity is expected. Solar aspects have undergone several rounds of melt-freeze at this point and areas of unstable wet snow may be more likely on northerly and easterly aspects. Areas near rock outcroppings, cliff bands, and tight rocky couloirs where the effects of warming are amplified will also present elevated hazards. Wet, sticky snow surfaces, rollerballs and pinwheels, and increasing boot penetration are all signs of surface warming and may foreshadow larger point-release avalanches. Be wary of overhead hazards today and be ready to retreat if the surface snow thaws causing you to sink into deep wet snow. 

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Our very productive precipitation cycles this winter have led to some truly impressive cornice features near and above treeline. As we continue to see above-average temperatures and weak refreeze’s overnight natural cornice failures are becoming more likely. Given the sheer size of some of these features, falling blocks of dense snow have some serious destructive potential. Predicting the timing and exact size of a cornice failure is nearly impossible. They can fail without warning and they often break much further back from the edge than expected. Give yourself a wide berth if traveling along a ridge near cornice features and be wary of traveling on slopes underneath large cornice features.  

    (3/16/2023)

    Cornices above Red Mountain

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Weak faceted snow and melt-freeze crusts exist at various depths in the upper snowpack. While we have seen a decrease in signs of instability on these layers, field observations have continued to highlight the presence of the structure.  Rapid warming could reinvigorate these concerning layers making it easier for a rider to trigger a large slab avalanche. Feedback - like whumpfs, shooting cracks, and collapsing in the snowpack - may be spotty and unreliable and avalanches could fail without warning. If triggered, persistent slab avalanches can propagate beyond terrain features and they can be triggered from a distance. Large natural triggers, like cornice fall, are something to consider if you travel under slopes with big wind lips overhead. Use terrain choice to limit your exposure and be wary of convex rollovers, wind-loaded terrain features, and areas where the upper snowpack is getting wet and punchy.

Avalanche Discussion

Uncertainty in today’s forecast centers around increasing winds and the potential for some surface cooling. It’s unlikely that this will have a significant impact but strong winds could limit avalanche potential today, particularly if winds outperform the forecast.  We have not yet transitioned to a predictable spring snowpack and our current run of above-average temperatures combined with the lack of a solid refreeze is a bad combination. Snow in some shaded areas and at upper elevations is getting wet for the first time and these areas may pose the biggest risk for sizable wet activity. When in doubt it is a good idea to start early and give things like glide cracks, large cornice features, and steep slopes near rock outcroppings a wide berth.

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