Avalanche forecast

Provo

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

On upper elevation steep slopes facing west through north and east, you will find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger for triggering a Persistent Weak Layer avalanche. Avalanches in this terrain can be triggered remotely from a distance. Across all upper elevations, you will also find CONSIDERABLE danger for wind-drifted snow. Everywhere else will have MODERATE danger for new-snow avalanches.

Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making will be essential today. Do not let your guard down with the sunny skies and fresh powder. It is still dangerous, and any avalanche you trigger could have severe consequences with how shallow the snowpack is.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    The new snow came in wet and heavy with rising temperatures. This has created an upside-down structure, where denser snow sits on top of lighter snow—an ideal setup for avalanches failing within the new storm snow. As you travel, pay close attention to how the new snow is bonding. Use small test slopes, shovel tilt tests, and slope cuts before committing to anything bigger. Cracking, collapsing, or any slab-like feel in the new snow are clear signs to dial it back.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    You need three ingredients to create an avalanche:

    • A weak layer (old Oct/Nov faceted snow) • A slab (recent storm snow) • A slope steep enough to slide, anything over 30 degrees. (You get to choose this)

    My advice: avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees and stay off of — and out from under — any terrain facing the north half of the compass. Avalanches in this setup can be triggered remotely, meaning you can collapse the weak layer and start a slide from a distance.

    Yesterday, I remotely triggered an avalanche roughly 1-2 feet deep and nearly 200 feet wide. This was a powerful slide, easily capable of burying or injuring a person. The snowpack is extremely sensitive right now. Be sure to watch the video below.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    The northwest wind continues to blow at 10–20 mph, with gusts into the 30s and 40s along many upper-elevation ridgelines. These winds are actively drifting snow and creating fresh soft and hard slabs of wind-blown snow. Be on the lookout for slopes that are loading or have that rounded, pillow-like look. Cracking under your feet, a hollow feel, or stiff, chalky snow are all signs of fresh wind drifts you should avoid.

    On slopes where a weak layer of faceted snow sits underneath, even a small wind drift can overload the structure. The added weight from the wind can make an avalanche break deeper and wider, increasing the likelihood of a human or remote trigger and making the consequences much more severe.

Recent Activity

No new observations were submitted in Provo. However, in SLC plenty of people were out and the report below is from the SLC forecast:

In summary, nearly every backcountry report included widespread collapsing and cracking within the new storm snow. Numerous riders were able to remotely trigger persistent slab avalanches 50–200 feet wide and 1–2 feet deep, easily large enough to bury a person. Most of these slides failed on northerly aspects where the heavy new storm snow overloaded the buried Oct/Nov faceted weak layer. At some point during the storm many slopes went through a natural avalanche cycle.

Photo: Persistent slab avalanche in Grizzly Gulch, remotely triggered from low-angle terrain. The fracture failed on buried faceted snow and highlights the continued sensitivity of the early season weak layer.

Snow and Weather

Under mostly clear skies, mountain temperatures remain cold, ranging from 20–25 °F. Northwest winds continue at 10–20 mph, with gusts into the 30s and 40s across most upper-elevation wind sites. The free-air (11,000') is a different story — it’s cranking the anemometer at 45–55 mph, with gusts pushing close to 70 mph.

Today we can expect mostly sunny skies. A small storm to our north could dip far enough south to bring a few clouds or even a couple of snowflakes, but overall it looks quiet. Winds are supposed to ease, but as of now they’re still plenty active across the upper terrain. Mountain temperatures will climb into the upper 20s to low 30s around 8,500 feet.

Storm totals are 6 to 10 inches of new snow across the range containing 0.80 to 1.53 inches of water.

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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