A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on some steep west to north to east facing slopes in the mid to upper elevations for triggering a 12-18 inch thick slab that fails on our old Oct/Nov facets. Collapsing and cracking are sure give-aways to site specific instability...but these signs are becoming less common. Due to their tricky nature, I am still avoiding steep terrain with this structure. You can also trigger the isolated and stubborn slab of wind blown snow in the mid and upper elevations today but note these slabs can be found in unusual spots.
Wet avalanches should be on your radar over the next several days. If the snow becomes unsupportable or you see widespread rollerballs or pinwheels, consider changing aspects.
The west to northwest winds have been cranking for days. And while there is little snow available for transport and time and warmth are helping weld these wind slabs onto the landscape, you might still trigger pockety hard or soft slab in "sneaky" terrain. Caution should still be observed in wind drifted terrain.
A persistent weak layer of October and November facets makes up the base of the snowpack on westerly to northerly to easterly-facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations. In these areas, it is still possible to trigger an avalanche up to about 12-18 inches deep and over 100 feet wide.
This setup was obvious over the weekend, with widespread avalanche activity and plenty of red flags. As we move farther from the loading event, those signs may be less obvious, but the structure has not changed. Sensitivity and overall likelihood are slowly dropping, but the consequences remain high.
I am still avoiding steep terrain with this poor structure.
There were no new avalanches reported from the backcountry or the ski areas yesterday. The last reported avalanches were from the widespread natural avalanche cycle over the weekend - the heavy, dense snow and wind easily tipped the scales with soft slabs failing 12-18" deep on the old faceted snow. Pics below of the Ben Lomond headwall.
Example of the avalanches seen along the Ben Lomond Ridgeline (Photo: H. Jeremias)
Skies are mostly cloudy with some flurries noted in the Logan area mountains. Temps hover around freezing up high this morning while some trailheads and base areas have mercury reading of 45°F(!). Winds remain from the northwest, blowing 30-40mph with gusts to 45 along the highest ridgelines. Even some mid-elevation anemometers are registering gusts to 45mph. For today, we'll see skies trending partly cloudy by the afternoon with continued breezy winds from the northwest. Temps will spike to the mid to upper 30s up high, the mid-to upper 40s down low. Temperatures will only continue to warm through the weekend. Unfortunately, I don't see any storms on tap until the Solstice.
Snow coverage and riding conditions are a bit grim with 12-24 inches of snow on the ground up high but with plenty of bushes and dirt showing on many solar aspects. You'll be met with a superficial and breakable melt-freeze crust on all aspects and elevations this morning that will soften with daytime warming.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
