Avalanche forecast

Flathead Range & Glacier NP

Flathead Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a large avalanche on a buried weak layer is unlikely but not impossible. To minimize your risk, default to low-angle terrain if you are not on a supportable crust. Navigating the rough surface conditions will be today's greatest challenge.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Continued dry, benign weather has reduced the chance that a rider could trigger a slide on weak, faceted snow buried 1 to 3 feet deep. 

    The Persistent Slab snowpack recipe (slab-weak layer-crust) was reactive during and immediately following stormy weather and a subsequent warm-up between January 7 and 14.  The hazard diminishes daily, but remains our primary avalanche concern.

    Determining which slopes are safe may prove difficult, as snowpack tests have often been inconclusive. Keep your travel plans simple by sticking to locations with a supportable surface crust, which minimizes your impact on the weak layer. Shady areas harbor a thin, weak crust, or none at all, allowing your weight to impact deeper into the snowpack, potentially triggering a slide.  In this terrain, choose a low-angle slope for the safest option.

    If you plan to ride a steep slope, it is always a good idea to choose one that ends in terrain free of trees, gullies, and cliff bands. These terrain traps can magnify the consequences of getting caught in an avalanche. 

    (1/11/2026)

    This small avalanche was remotely triggered by riders in the sidecountry east of WMR. This likely failed on weak snow above the Christmas Crust. Although unlikely, riders can still trigger a slide similar to this. 

Avalanche Discussion

Saturday was characterized by cold temperatures, cloudy conditions, and light snowfall. The challenging surface conditions added an extra element, and we asked riders to stick to a simple, straightforward plan to minimize the risk of a mishap. Light snowfall overnight favored the Swan Range, where Noisy Basin picked up 4" of champagne powder. Our Creston connection reported 0.5" of snow this morning with a 25:1 Snow: Liquid Ratio (SLR). That is 4% density snow! The Flathead only experiences Cold Smoke during periods when an Arctic air mass infiltrates the area. However, this will do little to affect today's avalanche danger and probably won't improve the riding much, given its feather-light appearance.

Rob and Josh took the FOFAC motorized (Intro to Avalanches) class to Canyon Creek. You can find a few photos of their outing in the media carousel at the bottom of this page. Did you know that the Flathead Snowmobile Association reimburses students for the class tuition? What an incredible deal, thanks to a grant from Flathead Electric Cooperative Roundup for Safety program!

The Patrol Fund held a woman's Level 1 class over the weekend, and we appreciate the observations they sent in following their field day (Observation 1, Observation 2). They found no instabilities during their tour and had no failures or propagation in their snowpit tests.  Another observer traveled east of WMR and stated, "Crusts were the name of the game." This group found various crusts of different thicknesses and strengths. A cagey local encountered a backcountry obstacle/skiercross course in the Middle Fork corridor due to the immense blowdown associated with the December wind storm. 

Despite the mid-winter dry spell, local mid-elevation SNOTEL (SNOwTELemitry) stations are doing surprisingly well. Stahl Peak in the northern Whitefish Range and Flattop in central Glacier Park are both above 110% of the historic median Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). Noisy Basin (84%) and Blacktail (48%), not so much. SNOTELs at low elevations continue to struggle, with median values of roughly 34-53%. View the most recent SWE map for northwest Montana here. 

To make yourself feel better about choosing NW MT for the winter, check out this SWE map of the western US here. Ooof, brutal numbers, especially in Oregon, where 67 of the 73 stations report less than 50% median. 

Educational opportunities:

1/29 and 1/31: Ladies human powered Introduction to Avalanches. Find out more here.

2/9 to 2/15: Motorized Level 2 Avalanche Course. Find out more here.

2/21: Human-powered Rescue Refresh Clinic. Find out more here.

2/26 and 2/28: Human-powered Introduction to Avalanches. Find out more here.

Submit your observations for a chance to win an ORTOVOX probe and shovel!

  • Open to all motorized riders (snowmobiles and snowbikes).
  • One obs per day, as many days/month as you can get.
  • Monthly drawing on the first of each month.
  • This month's prizes donated by @JESCOMontana

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