Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It's less about triggering a slide on Friday and more about a rogue avalanche falling down on you. While these slides should be few and far between, being hit by one would be awful. Don’t spend too much time under snow covered rocky slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The atmospheric river will finally draw to a close, but the damage is done, and the snowpack remains wet and weak. That won’t change much on Friday. So, while it shouldn’t be particularly dangerous, there’s still a chance for blocks of snow to fall off steep rocky faces. Pick routes that help reduce the time you spend under these types of slopes. 

    Fortunately, the snowpack is pretty thin at lower and even middle elevations. This will help limit the size of any slides. However, even a small blob of wet dense snow could pack quite the punch. As you ascend, deeper snowpacks also mean the chance for bigger avalanches. 

    In some places, the snowpack may be truly saturated. Avalanches could gouge the snow or even run on the ground. This would be a more dangerous version of these wet slides. If you see one, anticipate others in similar terrain.

    (12/6/2025)

    Blocks of snow could fail in rocky areas like this.  (Boundary Basin, 6200ft, NW aspect. WL-N-D1.5/R1.)

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

It’s hard to put this past week into words. Since Monday morning, locations like Paradise have recorded around 15 inches of precipitation! We don’t really have a frame of reference for this much water in such a short time. Combine that with a lack of observations due to access and stormy weather, and we’re left scratching our heads. 

This storm was very warm. Rain reached well into the upper elevations repeatedly and even exceeded our forecast elevations (~8000ft). Camp Muir (10000ft on Mt Rainier) registered 32 F temperatures on Thursday. Needless to say, the snowpack took a huge hit, especially at lower and middle elevations. In some spots, there may not be enough snow to actually produce an avalanche. 

Floods, landslides, and washouts are affecting many communities. Even getting to the mountains is tricky. Above the trailheads, thin or even non-existent snowpacks make accessing snow arduous. Once on the snow, open creeks, random holes, and exposed obstacles pose a real hazard. I hate to say it, but it’s not a pretty picture out there right now. Let’s hope that changes soon. 

With the warm start to the 25-26 winter season, we have less snowpack information than usual to start daily forecast operations. For zones and elevation bands with less snow than needed for avalanche hazard, we will issue a forecast with No Rating. Anticipated avalanche and weather conditions will still be updated daily. NWAC will issue an avalanche danger rating for a zone when enough snow to produce avalanches has accumulated at middle and upper elevations.

Regions covered