Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Strong easterly wind and a few inches of new snow today will make it likely a person could trigger a large avalanche up to 3' deep. Additionally, fresh wind slabs up to 1' deep could be found above treeline. Both of these problems can be avoided by choosing low angle or simple terrain with nothing steep above. 

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CHUGACH STATE PARK: Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in Chugach State Park. New snow and increasing winds have formed fresh wind slabs over a weak, faceted snowpack. Human-triggered avalanches are likely in wind-loaded terrain, and avalanches may step down into deeper persistent weak layers, producing large and dangerous slides. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. See today's updated outlook for more info.

Join us Friday, Feb. 13, for the annual Snowball fundraiser! This event is a collaboration with the Alaska Avalanche School and is always a fun way to support two nonprofit organizations that provide avalanche information and education in our area. Silent auction, beverages, hors d'oeuvres, and music by Hope Social Club! Tickets and event info at alaskaavalanche.org

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanches: A large avalanche cycle occurred with the last major storm on January 14 to 16 with very large avalanches occurring on many of the slopes in the Summit Lake area.

    Despite the Summit Lake area being largely missed by this first wave of precipitation, there are good chances a person could trigger a large avalanche with serious consequences anywhere above 1,000'.  Summit Lake could receive 2 to 3" of new snow today above rainline, which should be about 1,500', with more to come tonight and tomorrow. This new snow combined with strong easterly wind is likely to overload the very weak snowpack that exists in this zone. 

    Check out the video here to see how touchy the weak layer is in this area. This layer is so sensitive you could trigger an avalanche from flat terrain below, above, or to the side of where the avalanche occurs. Even small terrain could be a problem so avoid traveling above gully features where snow could pile up. Choosing low angle terrain without anything steep above is a way to have a safe day without worrying about being caught in a large avalanche.

    Estimated snow totals above rainline from Monday to Wednesday morning at 6am:

    Location Snow Water Girdwood 13" 1.25" Portage/Placer 4" 2" water (thats 2' of snow above rainline!) Turnagain Pass 3" 0.3" Summit Lake 3" 0.3" Grouse Creek 8" 0.6"

     

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    A few inches of new snow and strong easterly winds today will make fresh wind slabs up to 1' deep easy for a person to trigger. These can be found below ridgelines, on steep rolls, and in gullies on the leeward side where the snow piles up. This problem exists in the same place as the more dangerous problem described above. Both can be avoided by sticking to low angle terrain with nothing steep above.

    Wet Loose: With warming temperatures and rain falling on snow, small wet loose avalanches could be occurring on steep slopes.  Watch for roller balls to know this is happening.

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