Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

An atmospheric river will soak our early-season snowpack, resulting in dangerous natural avalanches where coverage is sufficient. Monday will be a crummy weather day in the mountains, so you're better off sitting this storm out and waiting for the skies to clear. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    It's going to rain to the top of most peaks in the zone, meaning wet avalanches will follow anywhere snow coverage is sufficient. With such a meager early-season snowpack, the question becomes - where is there enough snow? 

    The answer is higher up in the hills, above roughly 5000 feet. At these elevations, information is extremely limited, but there may be enough snow that wet slides could grow large and dangerous. There may even be several rounds of avalanches as the rain continues, starting with wet loose slides, potentially followed by deeper and larger glide-style avalanches. 

    Although there's a lot of uncertainty about exactly where or how big these slides will be, we feel confident they will happen. Your risk management is relatively simple. Since it's going to rain essentially to the top of our forecast zone, it's likely a good day to stay out of the snowy mountains.

    (12/7/2025)

    A pinwheel of dense and cohesive storm snow. Expect to see a lot of pinwheels and rollerballs as temperatures rise. They are precursors to wet avalanches.

    Photo: Payton Schiff

Avalanche Discussion

Freezing levels are expected to soar to 7500 feet by Monday evening, which pretty much covers all the terrain we forecast for in the East Central zone. Areas closer to the crest are expected to get whalloped with water, but even the eastern part of the zone, such as Mission Ridge, won't escape the deluge. 

This atmospheric river will likely wash away most of an already struggling early-season snowpack. There currently isn't enough snow down low for us to issue a hazard rating. As you ascend in elevation, it's more winterlike, but the snowpack is not particularly deep - a couple of feet at most. Make no mistake: if this storm were occurring mid-winter or we had a cold, layered snowpack on the ground, we'd be forecasting High avalanche danger and issuing avalanche warnings. It's that big and dangerous a storm. The mindset behind the considerable rating is that the potential for widespread D2 natural avalanches is lower because we don't have much existing snow to work with. Just in case we're wrong, you probably want to stay out of snowy areas of the mountains on Monday. It won't be very pleasant out anyway, so it shouldn't be too hard to convince yourself to stay home and prepare for the snowier days ahead. 

Of course, there's always an exception with a zone as large and diverse as the East Central. And in this case, it's the northwestern parts of the zone or the highest peaks. If you find yourself in one of these spots, current snow depths may be deeper and colder, similar to the East North zone. That means avalanches may be larger and more destructive. If you're traveling in these areas, HIGH avalanche danger may be warranted. You can take a look at the East North forecast to learn more about the snowpack to the north. 

With the warm start to the 25-26 winter season, we have less snowpack information than usual to start daily forecast operations. For zones and elevation bands with less snow than needed for avalanche hazard, we will issue a forecast with No Rating. Anticipated avalanche and weather conditions will still be updated daily. NWAC will issue an avalanche danger rating for a zone when enough snow to produce avalanches has accumulated at middle and upper elevations.

Regions covered