Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The avalanche danger is gradually increasing with the new snowfall and winds that started last night. If it continues to snow today, the avalanche danger will continue to rise. Human-triggered or natural avalanches on buried weak layers about 1 to 1.5' deep are possible today, especially in areas that receive 4 to 6" or more of new snow or with recent wind loading. Remote triggering an avalanche from low-angle terrain on an adjacent steep slope is common with this type of weak layer. Avoiding terrain traps is a good way to reduce your exposure while the snowpack is being slowly stressed by new snowfall.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the East Turnagain Arm, Turnagain Pass, and the Kenai Peninsula.

Our second Forecaster Chat of the season is coming up this Thursday, Jan. 8 at the Girdwood Brewery. The event is free, and the show will start at 6:00 pm. Come on down! More info here.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent avalanches: The last reported avalanche activity was last Wednesday, when avalanches were triggered in many locations on the skier's side and motorized side of Turnagain Pass. Including Sunburst, Tincan, Seattle Ridge, Goldpan, and Super Bowl.

    The deep freeze is giving way to an active weather pattern this week, with snowfall starting last night and expected to continue throughout the week. The amount of new snow we receive will determine how quickly the avalanche conditions become more dangerous. Weather models are not in great agreement about how much new snow is coming, but NWS forecasters are leaning towards the higher end of the model predictions. So far, about 1 to 2" of new snow (0.1" water) has fallen in Girdwood and Turnagain Pass, with the potential for another 2 to 4" of snow (0.25" water) throughout the day today. 

    Thanks to the prolonged cold and dry weather the past month, the snowpack throughout the forecast zone is weak. Our biggest concern is a layer of facets underneath a crust about a foot deep, which has produced multiple natural and human-triggered avalanches in the past week. The likelihood of triggering and size of avalanches on this weak layer are rising as more snow starts to pile up. This type of weak layer can be triggered remotely, meaning you could cause an avalanche on an adjacent steep slope even if you are standing on low-angle terrain. We recommend a cautious approach to avalanche terrain today by sticking to simple, low-angle terrain and avoiding terrain traps, especially in areas with higher new snow totals and where wind loading could add additional stress to buried weak layers. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    In addition to the potential for triggering avalanches on buried weak layers in problem 1, there is also the potential for human-triggered avalanches about 1' deep in wind-loaded areas along ridgelines and exposed terrain features. Easterly winds arrived with the snowfall and averaged 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph overnight. These winds are expected to back off today, but we expect wind slabs that formed overnight to remain touchy today. You can keep an eye out for shooting cracks and hollow feeling pillows of wind-transported snow at upper elevations to identify where wind slabs are located. 

    Dry Loose Avalanches (sluffs) are very likely in steep terrain today. These are not likely to bury a person, but could push you off balance in steep terrain or pile up in terrain traps.

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