Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Continued warming will maintain the threat of unpredictable, wet avalanches. Wet avalanches of all types and sagging cornices remain a real concern during this period. Avoid travel on and limit your time spent under steep slopes until this warm and wet weather has run its course. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Destructive wet avalanches (including wet loose) remain a real concern on Friday. While the East South hasn’t seen all that much rain, it's been warm enough that meltwater is pumping through the snowpack and potentially weakening old weak layers that range 1-3 feet deep.

    Wet slab avalanches are notoriously hard to predict and forecast, so the best strategy is simply to avoid travel on and below steep terrain until the warm-up has run its course. This travel advice will also help you avoid other warming-induced concerns like sagging cornices, glide cracks, and chunks of hanging snow that may also exist across the zone. 

    (1/29/2024)

    An example of a destructive wet slab from a past season.

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

The East South has largely escaped the bulk of the rain so far. Any rainfall has been light. The heaviest rain accumulations have been confined to the Cascade Crest, particularly near White Pass and farther north. While rainfall has been light, temperatures have been downright warm. 

Observations have been sparse during this period, but just over the ridge at Crystal Mountain, they reported triggering large wet slab avalanches during avalanche control work that failed up to 18 inches deep. They suspect these large wet avalanches failed on old weak layers from earlier winter. 

These types of observations are hard to overlook, especially when the snowpack is as wet and sloppy as it currently is. Wet snow is incredibly tricky to forecast and predict. Fortunately, freezing levels are forecast to drop on Friday night and Saturday which should slowly help us build a crust and limit wet avalanche concerns. Until then, keep your margins wide and let the warm-up pass before venturing in or around steep terrain. 

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