Avalanche forecast

Douglas Island

Coastal Alaska Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Hazard is Moderate at upper and mid elevations and low at lower elevations. Overall snowpack stability is good; however, low density, dry, unconsolidated surface snow is easily transported by increasing Southerly winds. This is allowing isolated and reactive wind slabs to quickly build. Watch for these slabs primarily on North and West aspects,  especially near ridgetops. Hazard is expected to increase late in the day and overnight as significant snowfall and stronger winds move into the area. For today: heightened avalanche conditions exist on specific terrain features. Evaluate the snowpack and terrain carefully, and identify features of concern. 

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    East-Southeast winds in the 20–30 mph range blew through the night and are expected to remain moderate to strong throughout the day. These winds proved capable of forming reactive slabs on 3/14. Watch for loaded pockets of smooth, wind-drifted snow that may extend into lower elevations than typical start zones. 

    Due to the channeling that Douglas Island often experiences, combined with shifting wind directions, isolated pockets of wind-loaded snow could develop on a variety of aspects. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    With scattered snowfall in the morning and significant snowfall forecasted this afternoon, storm slabs will continue building throughout the day. This problem will likely be widespread, and with ongoing wind transport, larger areas of storm slab may develop lower than typical start zones.

    Travel tests, such as hand pits and sledding on small test slopes, can help reveal how well this storm slab is consolidating throughout the day. Watch for signs of instability, including shooting cracks.

Avalanche Discussion

A regime change occurred yesterday as the storm arrived earlier than expected in the morning. Scattered snow showers fell intermittently throughout the day while winds shifted to the East-Southeast and intensified. Preferential deposition (storm snow transported by wind) was observed, with mid-elevation bands filling in faster than expected due to wind transport.

A couple of isolated D1 wind slab avalanches were observed across Douglas Island on northerly-facing slopes as ESE winds increased intermittently through the day. These appeared to be soft slab wind slabs formed from recently transported snow.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from March 15 at 1 PM to March 16 at 1 PM. Expected snowfall amounts range from 6–14 inches, with the highest snowfall totals expected Sunday evening into early Monday morning. As snowfall continues through the day, watch for loaded zones on northerly aspects that may be lower than typical start zones. Locally higher snowfall amounts are possible through Monday evening.

The upcoming week looks active, with scattered to widespread snow expected through Saturday (3/21). Snowfall totals will likely be highly variable from Tuesday onward - anywhere from 8-18". 

While today’s avalanche hazard remains at Moderate, it is expected to rise to Considerable by tomorrow. For tomorrow: dangerous avalanche conditions are expected. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and conservative decision-making will be essential.

Regions covered