Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The West North is coming out of significant storm system with avalanche concerns on most aspects. You can trigger a slab in wind loaded areas where the generally soft snow becomes more cohesive. As the clouds decrease, expect rollerbolls and a round of natural loose avalanches on steep, sun-exposed slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The cooler phase of the Tuesday-Wednesday storm system brought periods of heavy snowfall, a cooling trend, and moderate winds and strong gusts. While the majority of the snow lacks a slab, wind loaded slopes will be an exception. Southerly and westerly winds during the storm will focus wind loading on typical start zones at middle and upper elevations. As the storm fizzles Wednesday evening, so do the winds. So, you might not get the typical feedback of textured snow surfaces and scoured ridgelines. However, you should still be able to feel the impacts of wind loading (if present), just under the snow surfaces. Winds may have scoured some aspects almost down to the 3/24 crust, while loading other aspects with punchy snow several feet thick above that crust. Evaluate for layers cohesive slabs on small test slopes below corniced wind lips. If these test slopes prove reactive, avoid steep slopes nearby. Winds were strong enough to load start zones and mid-slope rolls in the terrain. We expect that wind loaded terrain will not be widespread and that most areas will have right-side-up low-density snow that is well bonded to the underlying crust. When in doubt, wind-sheltered slopes are always an option. At upper elevations, slabs have a greater risk of being large and harder to escape. If you head to these elevations, do a more thorough evaluation about the bond between the recent snow and the underlying crust as a thin layer of faceted snow may not have been washed away by Tuesday's rains.

    Example: a small rider triggeredavalanche failing on a wind loaded slope, with minimal surficial evidence of loading patterns.

    Photo: Hilary Groh

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    You're likely to find 12-15" of cold snow susceptible to the destabilizing influence of the strong March sunshine. Clouds are likely to hold off this problem until later in the morning hours, but once the sun makes a sustained appearance, expect a volley of rollerballs on steep sun-exposed slopes, followed by sluffs and potentially wet avalanches. Reduce your exposure to steep, open, sun-exposed slopes, particularly those above you, and move to lower angle terrain or shaded aspects. 

    (2/15/2026)

    Wet loose avalanches running on the south side of Table Mtn during peak solar intensity. 

    Photo: Hilary Groh

Avalanche Discussion

The Mt Baker Ski area received 3.1" of water equivalent since the early morning hours on Monday. Over half of that moisture arrived as snow at middle elevations, although only around 1.26" of water equivalent (12-15" of snow) arrived after snow changed back to rain and the well-forecasted convergence delivered on the West North zone. The upper extent of the 3/24 rain crust remains uncertain. Above a certain elevation, some areas may have received exclusively snow with this storm. The associated 2-3 ft of storm snow at such an elevation could produce avalanches larger and more widely propagating than forecast. Prior to the storm, NWAC forecasters identified faceting snow above the 3/21 crust. That weak snow layer may have survived on shaded aspects at the these highest elevations, underlying these large (and potentially very large slabs). If you do head up high on Thursday, it's worth reading the East North zone forecast where a similar snow structure remains intact.

Both Tuesday and Wednesday were windy with Moderate. Extreme winds closed the Mt Baker ski area by mid-day on Tuesday. Winds at Pan Dome were sustained in the 40-50 mph range with gusts just shy of hurricane force (75 mph). Winds backed off into the moderate range Tuesday night and Wednesday, but very strong to extreme gusts were recorded at times on Pan Dome. Strong, gusty winds tend to have eratic loading patterns, so factor that uncertainty into your terrain selection.  An observer in the Baker Backcountry reported scour on south-facing aspects and wind loading on north-facing slopes around Austin Pass on Wednesday. They did not find much in the way of instability.

In lower and middle elevation terrain, the 3/24 crust has merged with the 3/21 crust and is likely to be firm by Thursday. Any wet avalanche debris from Tuesday may also be firm chunder. Keep that in mind as you ride through and enjoy the low-density snow. 

See the gallery below for a sampling of conditions prior to the ongoing storm.

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