Avalanche forecast

Maritime

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

The avalanche danger is Considerable at all elevations.  Human triggered avalanches 1-3+ feet in depth are likely and natural avalanches are possible. 

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong north winds will redistribute recent snow into thicker, stiffer slabs on lee slopes and in cross-loaded features (gullies, rollovers, below ridge crests). Wind slabs will be sensitive to human triggers, and rapid loading could produce natural avalanches.

    The key concern today is not just the wind slab itself—it’s the potential for a wind-slab trigger to step down and release the deeper persistent weak layer. In that scenario, a small-to-moderate wind slab could initiate a much larger avalanche failing 2–3+ feet deep, with long propagation.

    Avoid travel in wind-loaded terrain, and give start zones and runouts a wide berth.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    A deeply buried weak layer near the ground remains a low-likelihood, high-consequence problem—especially in steep, rocky terrain and areas where the snowpack is thin or highly variable. Triggering this layer directly is unlikely, but avalanches that start in the upper snowpack may step down to the basal weak layer, particularly in the Continental zone.

    Watch for thin spots near rock outcrops, scoured features, convex rollovers, and along ridge tops. Wind loading adds stress to these shallow areas, and we don’t know where the tipping point is.

    (2/13/2026)

    Clueland deep slab (Eastern Tiekel Valley)/ NW 2/13

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Strong north winds are expected to rapidly load lee terrain and stiffen the slab over a persistent weak layer. Human-triggered avalanches are likely today at mid and upper elevations.

    There is a greater uncertainty as to the presence of 1/26 interface in the Maritime zone.  We are yet to see avalanches occur on this layer, but users should remain skeptical of the strength of the snowpack especially as wind loading is occuring.  This layer is buried under 2-3' of snow and will be unlikely to produce signs of instability even if a dangerous setup is present.

    Avoid wind loaded slopes today.  Choose low-angle, sheltered terrain and avoid runout zones.

     

    (2/12/2026)

    Natural persistent slab avalanche on north Catchers Mitt. Crown width mapped at~.8 miles

    Photo: Kyle Sobek

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours: 

-Numerous large naturally triggered persistent slab avalanches over a widespread area. Thompson Pass Corridor (Tones Temple, Little Oddesey, Oddesey, and N cathers Mitt). Tonsina Glacier

  -small to large slab avlanches reported up Bear Creek near ice climing routes

--Photos at the bottom of the page show avalanches from last week that failed on our persistent weak layer. These avalanches are older than 72 hours, but the layer that these avalanches failed on is still very much a concern. Detailed acounts of these avalanches can be found in the observations/avalanche tab.

Forecast Discussion

We’ve had an unusually persistent set of avalanche problems this season. Today is a day of heightened concern because we’re expecting our first substantial outflow wind event since late December.

A persistent weak layer formed in mid-January has been steadily loaded by multiple small-to-moderate snow events. Sensitivity increased through early February, and two human-triggered avalanches resulted in full burials on 2/6. Continued loading produced large, connected natural avalanches on 2/12. That cycle was most pronounced near Thompson Pass, but the same weak layer exists elsewhere and may be more pronounced in some locations.

Today’s wind is expected to stiffen the slab and rapidly load lee terrain—conditions that can cause persistent slab sensitivity to spike with little warning. Because it’s difficult to predict how the snowpack will react to this change, we recommend avoiding avalanche terrain above 2000’ while loading is underway.

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.   

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