Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wet- Loose Avalanche danger within the upper 6-12" will increase through the day as the Sun and near-record temperatures bake our snowpack. Change to cooler aspects if you are sinking in past your boot tops, or if you are seeing recent avalanches and or rollerballs on the surface.

Use good travel protocols on steep and shaded terrain as Buried persistent weak layers 2-3 feet below the surface are hard to trigger but can still propagate a fracture over a distance.

Today's forecast is sponsored by Tamarack Resort.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The upper snowpack is gaining a lot of strength. Although it is unlikely, triggering a persistent slab avalanche 2-3 feet deep is not completely impossible today as thin spots near rocks and trees may be more sensitive, and most notably temps, Sun and human triggers can get the upper snowpack moving and cause a step down to deeper weak layers and create a large avalanche, especially in steep, wind-loaded terrain above 7000'.

    This link to our observation page shows the breakdown of instability and recent avalanche activity during the past week. We've observed several large, natural avalanches within the past 7-10 days. Instability peaked earlier this week. As the name implies, persistent slab problems tend to persist for a while even after instability has peaked. All of these persistent slab avalanches failed above 7000' on N, NE, and E facing slopes.

    (1/29/2024) Shaw Twin Ridge ENE 7437FT with 4'5" snow depth.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Human-triggered wet loose avalanches  6-12" deep are going to become more possible as the day heats up the snow on slopes steeper than 30 degrees, especially near rocks on Steep solar aspects. The warmer snow that has fallen above the rain line will be upside down and likely run in steep terrrain. Be cautious in run-out zones and where there are overhead hazards as small natural wet loose avalanches are possible in very steep and rocky terrain and can come down with rocks too. 

    The potential for an upper snowpack wet-loose avalanche to step down into deeper weak layers is possible. Use cautious travel protocols on steep slopes.

    (1/27/2024) Public observation from Lick Creek East of McCall of rollerballs on the surface.

Avalanche Discussion

The snowpack is springlike, more so on the surface. Use good travel protocols in steep terrain and enjoy the calm warm springlike days. Check out our observation from Monday here.

***Let us see your photos! Get your name in the hat to win some gear in our FPAC monthly drawing when you submit an observation. Submitting an observation improves your skills, informs other users, and benefits avalanche forecasts. Simple photos highlighting conditions are very helpful.

Did you know there are several avalanche classes in the area? Check out our classes and events page to learn more.