Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Avalanche danger will remain elevated on Tuesday after having received over a foot of new snow.  For the most part this snow is very light and dry.  It poses a danger to riders on slopes where the wind has blown it into a more consolidated slab.  These Wind Slab avalanches are likely wherever the wind has been free to blow snow, but particularly at higher elevations on lee slopes (those that face north, east and south).  Large slab avalanches are also possible where the new snow has buried surface hoar that was formed late last week; these slopes are those that face due north and are the most sheltered from wind and sun.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wind Slab avalanches will remain likely on Tuesday.  Moderate west winds will continue to blow the abundant soft snow onto lee slopes on north, south and particularly east slopes near treeline, at alpine elevations and anywhere the wind is free to blow.  Wind Slab avalanches could be large enough to bury or injure a rider.  Cautious routefinding and conservative decision making will be important if you choose to travel on potentially wind loaded slopes.  This means making observations from less steep slopes and assessing the problem on small test slopes.  When in doubt avoid the identified terrain and find safe, quality riding lower in the terrain.

    (2/26/2024) Photo: Gabriel Coler

    Evidence of wind transport along Todd Ridge

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The bulk of storm snow received by Monday evening has come in "right-side-up" meaning that it gets weaker closer to the surface.  On sheltered north facing slopes this new snow fell on buried surface hoar from earlier in the weekend  (on other aspects or less sheltered slopes, the surface hoar was melted by the sun or destroyed by Sunday's wind).  I expect this buried surface hoar is on isolated slopes throughout the range.  Buried surface hoar can be a very weak layer in the snowpack so it is worth keeping in mind.  Over a foot of new snow propogating as a Storm Slab rather than as a Dry Loose avalanche significantly increases the size and danger of the potential avalanche.

    The key to managing this problem is identifying the terrain where this buried surface hoar is most likely (use the location info above).  If you are feeling a stiff crust beneath the latest storm snow, there probably isn't buried surface hoar.  If you aren't finding the crust your tool of choice is likely digging into the snowpack and looking for the layer visually or with compression tests or hand shears.  Other signs are unusually reactive test slopes or natural avalanches that have propogated farther than usual.

    (2/26/2024)

    Pointing to Buried Surface Hoar Layer 35cm below surface

    Profile near Soda Peak, 7000 ft, north

    Photo: Ryan Marvin

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    On Monday shallow Dry Loose avalanches were observed below treeline.  Avalanches large enough to bury or injure a rider are unlikely.  Be mindful of terrain traps like gullies and cliffs where even a small Dry Loose avalanche could have greater consequences.

    (2/26/2024)

    Small dry loose releases within new snow

    Photo: Ryan Marvin

Avalanche Discussion

By Monday evening we have received as much as 35 cm of new snow.  On any aspects that see the sun this newest snow sits on a melt-freeze crust.  At this point it appears to be bonding well to the crust.  On isolated, sheltered north slopes the storm snow may overlay buried surface hoar.

Regions covered