Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

The snowpack structure is dangerous, complicated by strong winds last night and warm temperatures today.  Wind-drifted slopes have produced many large avalanches in the past few days, and wind-sheltered terrain on the north half of the compass harbors a tricky layer of surface hoar 2 to 3 feet deep.  You can enjoy safer riding in simpler terrain:  lower slope angles, no terrain traps, and smaller slopes.   

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    A new round of weak layers was buried on February 2nd. These weak layers consist of widespread surface hoar and facets on most east, north, and west-facing slopes, and along with some faceted crusts on higher elevation southerly aspects. Slabs about 1 to 3 feet thick over these weak layers are sensitive to skiers and riders. This avalanche problem can be remotely triggered from flat terrain, or may propagate further than expected.  Shooting cracks or collapses are a clear sign of danger, but these obvious signs of instability will not always show themselves before an avalanche releases.  There is isolated potential to trigger older, larger slabs on weak layers deeper in the snowpack, most likely from shallow terrain features or step-down avalanches.  

    You can reliably avoid trouble on terrain with slope angles less than 30 degrees that are free from overhead steep terrain. Lower elevation southerly aspects offer safer options for steep terrain.  

     

    Several natural persistent slabs that ran naturally around 2/17 on DoubleTop.  

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong northwesterly winds overnight reignited wind transport onto south and east-facing slopes.  The increased winds formed a fresh round of sensitive wind slabs, and added to larger, more stubborn generations of wind slabs that formed a few days ago.   Avoid thicker, stiffer snow below ridges or in crossloaded terrain features to manage the problem.   Wind slabs have the potential to step down and release a much larger persistent slab avalanche. 

    Recent wind slabs below a leeward ridgeline on Mt. Baldy (2/17/2024)

Avalanche Discussion

More complications to an already dangerous snowpack.  Winds were stronger than forecast last night and reached the highest speeds of the entire week.  Although there's only a couple of inches of new snow to blow around, the shift in wind direction to the northwest found additional fuel for transport, especially on larger fetches.  Overnight winds were loading onto higher elevation south and east aspects, which produced numerous large avalanches in the past few days (ex. Mt. Owen, Red Lady Bowl).  Mountain temperatures are forecasted to rise above freezing for the first time this week.  That will likely cause some shallow sluffing as the snow surfaces moisten, and it could initiate more warming-related natural slab releases like we saw on Saturday.  Long story short, we may not be out of the woods yet for natural activity.  

The highest snow quality will steer many skiers and riders to wind-sheltered slopes on the north half of the compass, and that's where the buried surface hoar sharks are circling (ex. Mt. Axtell). Our problematic surface hoar layer is 1 to 2 feet deep in the Southeast Mountains and 2 to 3 feet deep in the Northwest Mountains.  The thinner slabs in the Southeast Mountains have been most reactive in the past few days (Ex. Snodgrass, Deli Trail, Gibson Ridge), though this observation from the Marble side yesterday suggests that even the thicker slabs are still easy to trigger in some areas. 

The snowpack has been tricky and troublesome this month.  Assessing stability with our current persistent slab problem is challenging.  Terrain selection is an easier and more reliable solution.  You can significantly reduce your risk on smaller slopes less than about 35 degrees free of terrain traps.   You can essentially eliminate your risk on slope angles consistently less than 30 degrees.  

Regions covered