Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Shifting winds will form shallow slabs that you can trigger on steep and poorly supported open slopes.  At middle elevations, the sharpest cornices likely point to the freshest and most reactive slabs. At upper elevations, steer around thicker snow deposits or textured snow surfaces, and reduce your exposure to high-consequence terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    You're most likely to trigger a shallow wind slab formed within the last 24 hours. E winds moved snow near ridgelines at middle and upper elevations onto atypical aspects on Wednesday. These winds also stripped snow off of the older larger slabs, reducing our concern about a lingering potential for larger slab avalanches. Winds will shift to the NW on Sunday. This seesaw in the wind direction may prove confusing, with recently wind-stripped aspects getting re-loaded and recently loaded aspects getting sind stripped. The good news is that most of this action should take place near ridgelines and at upper elevations. The most useful sign of a fresh wind deposit will be that the freshest, sharpest cornices should point to the most recently wind-loaded slope. Snow underneath these fresh cornices may look fatter or smooth and lens-shaped. It may also be a bit firmer than the snow underneath it, so use small test slopes to sample these slabs before getting onto something more consequential.  In areas where you suspect recent deposits of 6" of snow may lurk, steer around slopes greater than 35 degrees or those where the fall line rolls out of view below you.

    Slope testers were hitting a variety of slopes at middle elevations without releasing slabs and entrainment of dry loose surface snow was minimal. However, keep in mind that we don't yet have reports from upper elevations where the winds likely transported more snow over the last 24 hours. With uncertainty higher at these upper elevations, it's wise not to push onto steep or unsupported slopes without some quick hand pits down to the 1/8 breakable crust.

    (1/12/2024)

    Example from the West South zone: Visual clues of wind transport. Drifts behind objects, smooth pillow-like piles, textured surfaces, and just out of frame, small cornices.

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

Temperatures warmed 25-30F over the last 24 hours but remained well below freezing with light to moderate E winds keeping the sun's effects at bay. Friday was the coldest day in recent memory at Hurricane Ridge and temperatures were below 0F the entire day.  A time series in the gallery shows the cold week at Hurricane Ridge with the extraordinary drop in temperatures on Friday and the east winds that developed on Saturday.

The cold temperatures have preserved exceptional riding conditions on all aspects with a right-side-up density distribution in the upper snowpack. The top 6" or so of snow (12" around 3000-4000 ft) fell Thursday evening and redistributed more deeply on the southern half of the compass with cold temperatures preserving the snow.  A storm cycle Monday-Wednesday added over 2 ft of snow at Hurricane Ridge. NPS rangers measured 32" of snow accumulation since Sunday (with 4" of settlement). You might find a breakable crust formed during mild temperatures on 1/8. Slab reactivity should be limited to the snow above the 1/8 crust.

In many cases, 3 ft of recent snow lies on bare ground so consider the early-season obstacles that lie under the low-density snow as you travel. While it now looks like full-on winter, rocks, bushes, holes, creeks, and logs could lurk just under the surface. A photo in the gallery shows bare ground covering south-facing terrain up to 5000 ft just 10 days ago.

NWAC may issue a gray "No Rating" for an elevation band when there is not enough snow to present an avalanche hazard.

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