Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Warm temperatures overnight continued at most elevations and aspects. Wet loose avalanches are possible today, especially in the afternoon on solar aspects or at mid- to lower-elevation areas. Watch for signs of instability, including recent avalanches, collapsing, rollerballs, and deep wet snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Temperatures over the last few days have been well above normal.  Last night temperatures dipped below freezing in the Inner Basin SNOTEL site for the first time in days. All other weather stations (at Arizona Snowbowl) remained above freezing and have been that way since earlier in the week. There is uncertainty with the freeze line due to the cold air sink of the inner basin and the limited weather station data.

    Small wet loose avalanches may be possible, especially in the mid-afternoon as melting conditions reach their peak.  These wet loose avalanches happen on the surface of the snow and usually start as point releases that then entrain more snow as they descend down the slope.  Today's possible wet loose slides will be small but could still knock a skier or rider off their feet.  Be careful when traveling on soft and slushy snow on steep slopes above terrain features, such as cliffs and rocks, as these features could complicate a fall.  

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Multiple weak layers in the snowpack are present in specific terrain on northerly aspects of the forecast zone.   The chance of triggering this type of avalanche is small, due to its more localized distribution and sensitivity, but these weak layers are buried deeper in the snowpack and avalanches of this type could easily be large enough to bury a skier or rider.  This is a classic low probability but high consequences scenario.

    The layer of greatest concern is from the January 9th storm.  This snow quickly developed into diurnal recrystallization (recycled powder) facets.  It has been buried by the most recent storm cycle, and in specific locations is distributed widely enough that, if loaded or triggered, could result in a large avalanche.  

Avalanche Discussion

Uncertainty remains within the snowpack. Last night, temperatures within the Inner Basin SNOTEL site (9720') dropped below freezing for the first time in days, and all other weather stations remain above freezing. This limited weather data adds to the uncertainty. Cold air sinking in the Inner Basin may have been the cause of the SNOTEL site, which may not be reflective of the tempature on the upper slopes. 

In a short timeframe, we’ve gone from winter storm to late spring conditions, and it's not even March yet. Conditions vary considerably across the forecast area right now, increasing uncertainty. It’s best to factor that into your tour plans by creating options and building in wide safety margins.

There are reports of good soft skiing above treeline. These reports with any information are helpful to us. Please submit them here. 

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